Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast (Nate Silver, Five Thirty Eight)

Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast
By Nate Silver

The question I posed yesterday — does Newt Gingrich have momentum in South Carolina? — now appears to have an unambiguous answer. Yes, Mr. Gingrich does have momentum — and a lot of it.

Six different South Carolina polls have been released so far today, and they show a split in their results. In two traditional polls with live interviewers, one by Marist for NBC News showed Mitt Romney leading by 10 percentage points, and the other by the Tarrance Group for Politico had him ahead by 7 points.

It should be noted, however, that Marist split its results into samples conducted before and after Monday night’s debate, and found that Mr. Romney’s lead was smaller — 5 points — in the post-debate sample. And a third traditional poll, from American Research Group, gives Mr. Gingrich a nominal 1-point advantage.

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The model now shows a virtual tie in the race, with Mr. Gingrich projected to get 34 percent of the vote and Mr. Romney 33.6 percent and each candidate having about a 50 percent chance of winning. Read more…

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/