Hillary Clinton Looks Strong Heading Into Fall

Few positive headlines about Hillary--but love this one.





Hillary Clinton Looks Strong Heading Into Fall
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign_us_57cca425e4b0e60d31df9836?section=&section=us_politics




Democrats stand a decent chance of retaking a Senate majority, too.


09/05/2016 09:06 am ET

Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post


.................An utter landslide for Clinton looked more likely immediately after the conventions, when she regularly saw double-digit leads in national polls. HuffPost Pollster’s model, which aggregates publicly available polling, currently gives her a lead of about 5 points in a head-to-head race nationally, down from more than 8 points at the height of her post-DNC bounce. Clinton also has a 5-point lead on average when third party candidates are included in the poll questions.

A 5-point lead leaves room for Trump to catch up, but it’s still considerably wider than the edge President Barack Obama enjoyed over Mitt Romney at this point during the 2012 cycle. And Clinton’s lead has been remarkably consistent: Not a single poll included in HuffPost’s average has had Trump ahead since late July. Historical precedent suggests that bodes well for her. In each of the past 16 elections, the candidate leading after the conventions has gone on to win.

State polling tells a similar story. Clinton is leading Trump by a significant margin in many battleground states, with leads of between 6 and 9 points in Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. In another set of swing states, including Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, she holds smaller edges of between 2 and 3 points. The only swing state Trump has on his side is Nevada, but only by a very narrow margin. And he only musters 1- to 3-point leads in traditionally red Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.

Current presidential forecasts from five different modelers put Clinton’s chances of winning between 71 percent and 94 percent.................................