Trump campaign can go suck it Lets kick his ass Now I see why Hillary campaign won't back down

The trend lines - the coughs - the emails - Ben Gazzi!!!!


OHMY!

Our HRC kicks ass!!!!

Falling in the polls and dying soon..

Now the narrative is going to shift again till the debates Hillary campaign going into high gear not backing down They must see her internals Looks like 3rd party's decreasing People are horrified of the Putin thing too looks like

Their own polling is probably the best in the world!

If the trumpets go after Hillary tmmrw they fuck themselves people won't put up with it Its sept 11 and u think people getting tired of the shit That goes for Hillarys campaign too which I think she will respect Trump won't be able to help himself I think tmmrw

We have an Electoral College but a candidate winning the popular vote by eight percentage points is very likely on his or her way to an Electoral College landslide.

It won't even be close.

So sometimes national polls say something meaningful.

That would be true of this one.

Is a good indicator She is still up in majority of states she needs not just blue states WAPO is pretty good

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

But I did get the timing right at least.

I saw the poll about two hours ago.

So, that makes this good news.

That's when they threw everything at her emails emails , coughing bullshit this bullshit that and she's ahead and gaining They have no idea that trump is fucking them Good

though the numbers could vary from state to state.

feeding frenzies over emails and the Clinton foundation.

Trump is being Trumped with his own technique. He's an entertainer and that is all he's got, trying to dominate the news cycle.

Last edited Sun Sep 11, 2016, 10:33 AM - Edit history (1)

And the difference might be is that Trump just flies off and says something outrageous that hurts him, this struck me as calculated. Not in a bad way, but it would not surprise me if Hillary's team planned the statement, the aftermath, and the non apology that allowed her to stick to her guns and still look congenial. It was well played. Contrasted to Trump's regular outbursts and it was quite thought provoking and well crafted.

And more determined to vote.

Remember - it's "D" for Donald, AND "D" for Deplorables! See how it all fits? The "D" is the thing! Grades him on the most favorable curve possible and he STILL gets a "D"!

What the effect of today's brouhaha will have on it I'm glad Hilary's team is not backing down on pointing out racism etc I'm nt not gonna get too worried about it Hillarys team must be confident with their internals

Now watch, RCP will take a few days to add this to their average and then they'll remove it as soon as possible after. RCP is right wing and their methods are suspect. The lone poll that showed Trump ahead will spend 3 weeks in their average while this one will spend less than a week. Watch.

It sample 10% more dems than Republicans. This should cancel out that CNN poll at least

It's a random sample and there are somewhere between 6-15% more Dems than Reps.

The 50/50 nation is a myth.

Shouldn't it be more like 34% dems and 28% republicans? Obviously we would still be winning, but maybe subtract 1-2 points.

Math doesn't work like that.

Obviously the CNN poll was way off. At a very minimum it should have had Hillary up 2 in LV and up 5 in RV.

It's called random sampling for a reason. You don't pick a sample and then start throwing away parts of it because it doesn't match what you expected(they do throw out some for other reasons). And pollsters aren't asking people their party affiliation before they start the poll. +10 Dem is what they reported, +10 is within reason. This is the best pollster out there, if someone asked me what the Dem-Rep ratio is in this country I would say a recent ABC-WAPO poll put it at plus 10 Dem and that would likely be the latest and most accurate number we have.

Again, this is just one new data point, just like other polls, but this one means slightly more because it's from the strongest rated pollster. Hillary could reopen a decent lead, but Trump will likely find a way to close the gap again. Hillary has been in the eye of the country a lot more recent though and she's leading a strong campaign. She's a solid favorite to win.

"A stratified random sample is a population sample that requires the population to be divided into smaller groups, called 'strata'. "

So if you know your total sample size will be say 500 voters then based on demographics you try to match the sample's characteristics to the population as a whole. So if 34% of voters are D's then you stop taking data on D's when you get 500 x .34 = 170 D's contacted. Rinse and repeat for other categories.

previous poster is correct in that there really are more self-identified Democrats than Republicans. however, this has always been a problem for pollsters using random sampling - sometimes you get too much of a demo, sometimes too little. so in the case of an election poll the results of each demo get weighted to match a turnout model. to a certain extent this immunizes the poll to demographic inconsistency, but it does introduce a few other problems (e.g., accuracy of the turnout model). sometimes pollsters compensate for this by reporting several turnout models to adjust their sample, and sometimes the news picks up on the results of one such model to support a given narrative.

for instance the turnout model for the recent CNN poll that had people here shitting bricks included the highest proportional turnout for white voters in decades. it will be interesting to look at the turnout model used in this poll by way of comparison.

Look at the last two GEs, almost every poll had Romney closer to Obama, basically only 1 or 2 out of a few dozens of polls were slightly biased left, the rest all were biased right.

We'll see this week, but it I suspect we'll see a slight widening again.

first, iirc, many polls use a demographic "likely voter" model that overweights voters who align more to GOP these days - white, elderly - and discounts minority votes. so we see Clinton ahead 10 points using a "registered voter" model, and then that lead drops to 5 points using the "likely voter" screens. there's probably a more accurate middle ground with Clinton up 7 or 8 now.

then that "likely voter" model gets reinforced every couple years during the off-year elections where a lot of Democrats somehow decide there's something more worthwhile to do than voting.

and the mass media, bless their stony little hearts, has long since opted for a "horse race" narrative as the most profitable source of advertising revenue so they'll tend to select poll results where the turnout model has been used to boost the major underdog(s). even when multiple turnout models are presented, they'll only report on the one most favorable to the pre-established big picture.

over the last year, the worst effect of this has been a normalization of racism and bigotry through an editorial slant that promotes false equivalency: "see? the two parties are still the same, it's just the other side of a fair coin." when one of the parties has gone full-on sithlord, false equivalency is poison for democracy.

Or some other reason?

How do you know that there are not 10% more Dems than Republicans in the nation?

How many times do people have to say this?

Sad!

Hillary should make more comments like she did today.

She doesn't need to get into a pissing contest with Dipshit Donald, but a cold slap in the face now and then is just what the doctor ordered.

That is his name now, since he calls her Crooked Hillary. She doesn't need to say anything. We will say it for her.

see http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028157558 posted by kpete

Is it 57 or 58 days to go?

To Hillary?

TWEETS
John Harwood Verified account
?@JohnJHarwood

Post/ABC Poll, Clinton net advantage over Trump on issues: economy +4, terrorism +3, immigration +2, taxes +9, trade +16

7:47 AM - 11 Sep 2016
48 retweets 68 likes


Reply to @JohnJHarwood


VetsForObama ?@VetsForObama 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Shorter version: @HillaryClinton is better at everything related to being President
0 retweets 2 likes

Ken Buddha ?@jwellingtonpeev 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Poll: Clinton, Trump tied in 4 battleground states http://politi.co/2cAV0hU | Getty
0 retweets 1 like
ESQUELETO ?@ES_QUEL_ETO_ 1h1 hour ago

. @JohnJHarwood Thanks for pointing out that this poll is faulty. It's clear by those results this poll is completely wrong.Great reporting!
0 retweets 0 likes
Gadiri Diallo ?@gadiri28 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Trade +16? Impossible...take this shady poll and dump it in the trash where it belongs!
0 retweets 0 likes
Macro Insight Group ?@macroinsightgrp 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood Trump doing a better job lately of making this a referendum about HRC, not himself.
0 retweets 0 likes
BS400 ?@blacksmith400 2h2 hours ago

@JohnJHarwood In my white/educated neighborhood folks have started to put up Trump/Pence yard signs. I would say 5% reluctant to say.
0 retweets 0 likes

America finds orange Hitler deplorable!

and I so wanted to spend today on some serious hand-wringing.

Thanks for ruining everything.

(Actually, just thanks . . . even though I imagine there are some who really will be disappointed).

The Old Pretender
Old Hickory
Tippecanoe and Tyler Too
Old Kinderhook (Martin van Buren, and the origin of the term OK)
Tricky Dicky

How about

Old Deplorable?

Is that solid? Comfortable?

I'd rather see it be more like 15-20!

Honestly, how do Trump supporters sleep at night? What fantasies must they tell themselves?

====================

Little Donny haz a sad. Especially after tape of his despicable comments on 9/11 were aired. Even in the middle of a national crisis, Don the Con managed to make it all about him.