2016 Postmortem

Hawaii Hiker

(3,166 posts) Sun Sep 11, 2016, 08:48 AM Sep 2016

AZ, GA, NH, NV close - NBC/Marist

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216?cid=sm_twitter_feed_politics

While its good that red states like AZ, GA are so close, NH/NV should not be this tight,

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AZ, GA, NH, NV close - NBC/Marist (Original Post) Hawaii Hiker Sep 2016 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author tymorial Sep 2016 #1

Maybe. Fwiw, NH is relatively poor and uneducated for the NE, Hortensis Sep 2016 #2

Good results Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #3

NBC had Obama up by 2% in NH. He won by 5.6% molova Sep 2016 #4

Most polls under sample, deliberately or not, Democrats. MoonRiver Sep 2016 #5

Same poll had Hillary +1 in January Dem2 Sep 2016 #6

Like 2012 the "likely" voter models add a couple of points to the GOP book_worm Sep 2016 #7

Response to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

tymorial This message was self-deleted by its author.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

2. Maybe. Fwiw, NH is relatively poor and uneducated for the NE,

Reply to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:29 AM

Sep 2016

and populist movements on right and left have much in common and are big this year. And half of all Hispanics are conservative, with many not voting because they feel neither party represents them. Just some ideas. Here in Georgia, the presidency is the only national office with a chance of going blue.

Thanks for the post.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

3. Good results

Reply to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:38 AM

Sep 2016

We are ahead in NH. A one point lead is a lead.

I hope no one tries to tell me that because of the MOE the two are indistinguishable. Cause then I'd have to explain why that's BS and it's too early for that.

molova

(543 posts)

4. NBC had Obama up by 2% in NH. He won by 5.6%

Reply to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:39 AM

Sep 2016

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)

5. Most polls under sample, deliberately or not, Democrats.

Reply to molova (Reply #4)

Sun Sep 11, 2016, 10:09 AM

Sep 2016

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

6. Same poll had Hillary +1 in January

Reply to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Sun Sep 11, 2016, 10:35 AM

Sep 2016

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-president-trump-vs-clinton

Look at historical data before commenting. Hillary has been consistently up 4-5 points this year on average - that's not close. Many pollsters don't know how to poll NH as has been demonstrated over and over again over the years (remember 2008 primary?)

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

7. Like 2012 the "likely" voter models add a couple of points to the GOP

Reply to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Sun Sep 11, 2016, 10:41 AM

Sep 2016

because they don't think Dems will turn out but like 2012 they will.

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