2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Romney Never Saw It Coming
He was the numbers guy. But in the end his numbers were all wrong.
By John Dickerson|Posted Friday, Nov. 9, 2012, at 9:15 PM ET
Mitt Romney says he is a numbers guy, but in the end he got the numbers wrong. His campaign was adamant that public polls in the swing states were mistaken. They claimed the pollsters were over-estimating the number of Democrats who would turn out on Election Day. Romneys campaign was certain that minorities would not show up for Obama in 2012 the way they did in 2008. It just defied logic, said a top aide of the idea that Obama could match, let alone exceed, his performance with minorities from the last election. When anyone raised the idea that public polls were showing a close race, the campaigns pollster said the poll modeling was flawed and everyone moved on. Internally, the campaigns own pollingtweaked to represent their view of the electorate, with fewer Democratsshowed a steady uptick for Romney since the first debate. Even on the morning of the election, Romneys senior advisers werent close to hedging. They said he was going to win decisively. It seemed like spin, but the Boston Globe reports that a fireworks display was already ordered for the victory. Romney and Ryan thought they were going to win, say aides. We were optimistic. More than just cautiously optimistic, says one campaign staffer. When Romney lost, it was like a death in the family.
How did the Romney team get it so wrong? According to those involved, it was a mix of believing anecdotes about party enthusiasm and an underestimation of their opponents talents. The Romney campaign thought Obamas base had lost its affection for its candidate. They believed Obama would win only if he won over independent voters. So Romney focused on independents and the economy, which was their key issue. The Republican ground game was focused on winning those voters. We thought the only way to win was doing well with independents and we were kicking ass with independents, says a top aide. One senior adviser bet me that if Obama won Ohio, he would donate $1,000 for every point that Romney won independents to my favorite charity. (That would be a $10,000 hit since Romney lost Ohio but won independents by 10 points). In the end, Romney won independents nationally by five pointsand it didnt matter one bit.
Meanwhile, the Romney campaign was openly dismissive of the Obama ground game. Why are they wasting so much money with neighborhood offices, they asked? (In Ohio, for example, Obama had almost 100 more offices than Romney.) In retrospect, the Romney team is in awe and full of praise of the Obama operation. They spent four years working block by block, person by person to build their coalition, says a top aide. They now recognize that those offices were created to build personal contacts, the most durable and useful way to gain voters.
Romney advisers say it was impossible to compete against Obamas huge war chest. They also envy his ability to leverage the presidency for his campaign. Young voters were told about new provisions for student loans and Obamas support for same-sex marriage, an issue that appeals to young voters. Hispanic voters were wooed by the presidents plan to waive the deportation of children of illegal immigrants. One Romney aide also included the much-debated changes to welfare requirements as a policy aimed to win over African-American voters. It was like they had a calendar, said one Romney aide. With each month, the Obama administration rolled out a new policy for a different segment of their coalition they hoped to attract.
more:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/why_romney_was_surprised_to_lose_his_campaign_had_the_wrong_numbers_bad.html
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)The changes weren't meant to appeal to AA's - that's so mighty white of them to think this way.
demgrrrll
(3,590 posts)My blood is boiling after reading that last line. How arrogant and delusional are these people? I am a black woman who has never applied for welfare. I didn't vote for Obama for food stamps.
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Let them delude themselves into complete irrelevancy. Soon, they'll be as relevant as the Whig Party.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)In essence they are saying:
Their opponent was organized, addressed issues that were important to voters, reached out to ALL types of voters ( instead of ignoring 47% of them), and used campaign money wisely and effectively.
Gee....what a concept for winning an election!
"duhhh..I jus' dunno how he done it"
Patiod
(11,816 posts)As if welfare is just flowing free and supporting people who are living like kings and queens.
satxdem
(131 posts)But in crazy republican world Obama gave out free stuff for AA votes.
LuckyStrykes
(115 posts)I nor my family or AA friends mentioned welfare benefits during the many election conversations I participated in.
msongs
(67,421 posts)coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)Obama as a hedge
justgamma
(3,666 posts)It's always about the ground game. What exactly were the Cons running on? Lowering taxes on the rich and repealing Obamacare. They effed up the economy and Obama isn't fixing it fast enough. That's all I heard and I'm in Iowa with all the ads.
Maybe it's because people weren't buying what they were selling?
Freddie
(9,269 posts)And I'd yell at the TV, "so what is it??" Besides cutting taxes on the rich and the magic of the free market. Guess that was it...oh.
Bad Thoughts
(2,524 posts)All campaigns must go into elections believing they have the ability to win. They all must be prepared to lose. Romney and his handlers were well aware of the problems they faced: years of being referred to as a conservative milquetoast; the near collapse of his campaign in September; the jokes made about his relationship with Ryan; descriptions in the media of a tied race. Even they must have seen in their own polls that their support was declining, even with their "unskewing."
Even if they believed they would win, they were veteran operatives who have experienced loss before. Indeed, Romeny's career had many more political losses than victories. He should be steeled against such optimism.
If there is something that Romney's handlers should learn, it's demographics: you moved so far to the lunatic fringe that your support declines.
Kaleva
(36,315 posts)During WWII, General Eisenhower dismissed the intel he was getting that the Germans were preparing to launch a large scale winter offensive because he believed the German military was too weak to do such a thing. Many thousands of Americans died in what is called the "Battle of the Bulge" needlessly as a result of Ike's decision to go by what he believed over the intelligence reports.
railsback
(1,881 posts)A total scam, to keep the base from losing faith and to keep the big donors donating. That's why they're so pissed off. Romney lied to them, too.
Cha
(297,378 posts)"we'll see in a couple of weeks who's bluffing"
Edit: I like this quote in there.. "they're so anti-science it extends to all forms of being anti-evidence, including the polling concerning the very thing they're trying to win."
Talk about "schadenfreude-tastic"!
Samantha
(9,314 posts)10 percent of Republicans voting voted for Obama.
Sam
Cha
(297,378 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)Or Option B: admit that your data looked much like everyone else's and that you're smart enough to know that all along that you were losing, but that the rules of the game prevented you from publicly admitting that. That's partially because, via the 'bandwagon effect,' it might depress turnout, but mostly because it would depress contributions from big money donors who don't want to waste their money -- thus becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy because you then wouldn't have the money you'd need to even have a shot at winning.
Do you think that the Sheldon Adelsons of the world would be willing to open up their checkbooks for future races, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, when they find out that they've simply been lied to about Republican chances in order to keep the dollars flowing? Remember, these are guys who've been promised that they were getting the unvarnished truth about the campaign -- the platinum-club insider access -- and now they're finding out that they're getting grifted, just as standard campaign operating practice. (As you no doubt know, Karl Rove is having parallel problems with his American Crossroads donors.)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1160010/-Rethinking-shellshocked-Romney
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)1. He didn't bother to write a concession speech.
2. He did bother to spend $25K on his little self-congratulatory fireworks display, which was not cancelled until he lost.
And 2 personal opinions: in the concession pix, HRH Ice Queen Ann is stoically holding back tears, not her usual aggressive, snarly smile, and Ryan's wife looks really sad as well. The wives never saw it coming.
I do suspect Ryan saw through it. He alone looked happy on stage. He figured it out in time to save his old job. Piteh.
Nika
(546 posts)Cha
(297,378 posts)JBoy
(8,021 posts)And with their heads up their asses didn't realize how much they pissed off the majority of the electorate.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)We just didnt expect the African-American vote to be so high.
After 4 years of the most open racism I have seen since the early 1960's, including racial insults to the President, they really thought no one would vote against them?????
edited to add:
This line from the article:
"If youre basing your entire campaign on white people, it leaves you little margin of error. That's where Romneys troubles as a candidate hurt him."
which should have read: ""If youre basing your entire campaign on white MEN...."
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)OldHippieChick
(2,434 posts)Let them continue to be anti-immigrant, anti-women and anti-gay and our country will continue to be anti-Repuke.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)They are awake and voting...Hallelujah!!
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)I wonder who returned it to the store?
Webster Green
(13,905 posts)One doesn't simply go to a store and purchase class A fireworks shells and mortars.
bongbong
(5,436 posts)> Mitt Romney says he is a numbers guy, but in the end he got the numbers wrong.
Flip-Flopper was never, is not, and will never be a "numbers guy". He is just a high-class grifter, thief, tax evader, draft dodger, coward, and white-collar super-criminal.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)Life is three dimensional and if you don't look at the flesh and blood buried in all those numbers you will miss a lot.
ffr
(22,671 posts)We did the hard work, planned and were guided by an effective strategy. Our leaders knew precisely where to put resources, their leaders were arrogant neocons and neocon wannabees who were more concerned with skimming money off the top than winning an election. We had passion for our candidate, they had money. Knowledge, strategy and passion wins.
underpants
(182,844 posts)The smaller factor is they they didn't realize the "independents" included TeaBaggers who no longer called themselves Republicans.
The larger factor is that WE (in the Va - the Kaine campaign I know of first hand) flat out OUT WORKED them. Their ORCA program was a disaster from the techonilogic side to the implementation side....and it was was a scam on their own campaign.
amborin
(16,631 posts)would win....i think Romney knew he had little chance; and his internals suggested this also.