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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 11:16 PM Nov 2012

Why Romney Never Saw It Coming


He was the numbers guy. But in the end his numbers were all wrong.

By John Dickerson|Posted Friday, Nov. 9, 2012, at 9:15 PM ET


Mitt Romney says he is a numbers guy, but in the end he got the numbers wrong. His campaign was adamant that public polls in the swing states were mistaken. They claimed the pollsters were over-estimating the number of Democrats who would turn out on Election Day. Romney’s campaign was certain that minorities would not show up for Obama in 2012 the way they did in 2008. “It just defied logic,” said a top aide of the idea that Obama could match, let alone exceed, his performance with minorities from the last election. When anyone raised the idea that public polls were showing a close race, the campaign’s pollster said the poll modeling was flawed and everyone moved on. Internally, the campaign’s own polling—tweaked to represent their view of the electorate, with fewer Democrats—showed a steady uptick for Romney since the first debate. Even on the morning of the election, Romney’s senior advisers weren’t close to hedging. They said he was going to win “decisively.” It seemed like spin, but the Boston Globe reports that a fireworks display was already ordered for the victory. Romney and Ryan thought they were going to win, say aides. “We were optimistic. More than just cautiously optimistic,” says one campaign staffer. When Romney lost, “it was like a death in the family.”

How did the Romney team get it so wrong? According to those involved, it was a mix of believing anecdotes about party enthusiasm and an underestimation of their opponents’ talents. The Romney campaign thought Obama’s base had lost its affection for its candidate. They believed Obama would win only if he won over independent voters. So Romney focused on independents and the economy, which was their key issue. The Republican ground game was focused on winning those voters. “We thought the only way to win was doing well with independents and we were kicking ass with independents,” says a top aide. One senior adviser bet me that if Obama won Ohio, he would donate $1,000 for every point that Romney won independents to my favorite charity. (That would be a $10,000 hit since Romney lost Ohio but won independents by 10 points). In the end, Romney won independents nationally by five points—and it didn’t matter one bit.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign was openly dismissive of the Obama ground game. Why are they wasting so much money with neighborhood offices, they asked? (In Ohio, for example, Obama had almost 100 more offices than Romney.) In retrospect, the Romney team is in awe and full of praise of the Obama operation. “They spent four years working block by block, person by person to build their coalition,” says a top aide. They now recognize that those offices were created to build personal contacts, the most durable and useful way to gain voters.

Romney advisers say it was impossible to compete against Obama’s huge war chest. They also envy his ability to leverage the presidency for his campaign. Young voters were told about new provisions for student loans and Obama’s support for same-sex marriage, an issue that appeals to young voters. Hispanic voters were wooed by the president’s plan to waive the deportation of children of illegal immigrants. One Romney aide also included the much-debated changes to welfare requirements as a policy aimed to win over African-American voters. “It was like they had a calendar,” said one Romney aide. With each month, the Obama administration rolled out a new policy for a different segment of their coalition they hoped to attract.

more:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/why_romney_was_surprised_to_lose_his_campaign_had_the_wrong_numbers_bad.html
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Why Romney Never Saw It Coming (Original Post) DonViejo Nov 2012 OP
Am I mistaken? I think they've still got the welfare requirement thing wrong-o. nc4bo Nov 2012 #1
Apparently they believed their own inaccurate spin too! demgrrrll Nov 2012 #2
BINGO! missaj Nov 2012 #4
They are completely delusional. Still believing their own spin. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #6
It's almost like they were brainwashing themselves davidpdx Nov 2012 #17
My thoughts exactly. dixiegrrrrl Nov 2012 #31
That line hit me, too Patiod Nov 2012 #20
you are completely right... satxdem Nov 2012 #7
AA female here. I voted for personal rights, economics and a fair government. LuckyStrykes Nov 2012 #35
turns out Romney was not willing to spend his OWn money on himself lol nt msongs Nov 2012 #3
He was probably selling shares of himself short on Intrade (or buying shares in coalition_unwilling Nov 2012 #30
Why do they never talk about policies? justgamma Nov 2012 #5
Exactly. Romney kept saying "I have a plan" Freddie Nov 2012 #26
I'm not buying this crap any more Bad Thoughts Nov 2012 #8
Even the smartest people are prone to delude themselves. Kaleva Nov 2012 #24
KOS has a much, much more plausible antecdote railsback Nov 2012 #9
Thanks for the link, railsback.. As Axe said before the election.. Cha Nov 2012 #12
And another big thing the Romney campaign did not predict was that Samantha Nov 2012 #10
"A Death" in their family.. The Planet Got A Cha Nov 2012 #11
Propaganda to hide the true con game? UCmeNdc Nov 2012 #13
I figured propaganda except for 2 little factoids... magical thyme Nov 2012 #22
Great article, thanks for posting this. Nika Nov 2012 #14
It is a Good Article! just got finished reading it all.. love this excerpt! Cha Nov 2012 #15
Or maybe they're just incredibly out of touch, JBoy Nov 2012 #16
That, and incredibly racist. dixiegrrrrl Nov 2012 #32
More mittenfreude--I can't get enough. nt geek tragedy Nov 2012 #18
This a Gawd Damn lie! JRLeft Nov 2012 #19
With their heads buried in the sand OldHippieChick Nov 2012 #21
add in anti-youth...because as Obamacare goes into effect, they will greatly benefit. libdem4life Nov 2012 #23
so Romney's team ordered a victory fireworks display!!! Rosa Luxemburg Nov 2012 #25
The pyro-techs they hired took the stuff back to the shop. Webster Green Nov 2012 #28
Numbers guy? bongbong Nov 2012 #27
The trouble with spread sheets is that they are two dimensional. Cleita Nov 2012 #29
Never underestimate your opponent. We didn't. They did. ffr Nov 2012 #33
They whole thing was a consultant scam to bleed money out of the campaign underpants Nov 2012 #34
why was Ann crying in Colorado before the election? and a repub statisticisan also predicted Obama amborin Nov 2012 #36

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
1. Am I mistaken? I think they've still got the welfare requirement thing wrong-o.
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 11:24 PM
Nov 2012

The changes weren't meant to appeal to AA's - that's so mighty white of them to think this way.

missaj

(8 posts)
4. BINGO!
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 11:35 PM
Nov 2012

My blood is boiling after reading that last line. How arrogant and delusional are these people? I am a black woman who has never applied for welfare. I didn't vote for Obama for food stamps.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
6. They are completely delusional. Still believing their own spin.
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 11:48 PM
Nov 2012

Let them delude themselves into complete irrelevancy. Soon, they'll be as relevant as the Whig Party.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
31. My thoughts exactly.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:15 PM
Nov 2012

In essence they are saying:
Their opponent was organized, addressed issues that were important to voters, reached out to ALL types of voters ( instead of ignoring 47% of them), and used campaign money wisely and effectively.

Gee....what a concept for winning an election!

"duhhh..I jus' dunno how he done it"

Patiod

(11,816 posts)
20. That line hit me, too
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 11:56 AM
Nov 2012

As if welfare is just flowing free and supporting people who are living like kings and queens.

LuckyStrykes

(115 posts)
35. AA female here. I voted for personal rights, economics and a fair government.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:00 PM
Nov 2012

I nor my family or AA friends mentioned welfare benefits during the many election conversations I participated in.

justgamma

(3,666 posts)
5. Why do they never talk about policies?
Sat Nov 10, 2012, 11:45 PM
Nov 2012

It's always about the ground game. What exactly were the Cons running on? Lowering taxes on the rich and repealing Obamacare. They effed up the economy and Obama isn't fixing it fast enough. That's all I heard and I'm in Iowa with all the ads.

Maybe it's because people weren't buying what they were selling?

Freddie

(9,269 posts)
26. Exactly. Romney kept saying "I have a plan"
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:34 PM
Nov 2012

And I'd yell at the TV, "so what is it??" Besides cutting taxes on the rich and the magic of the free market. Guess that was it...oh.

Bad Thoughts

(2,524 posts)
8. I'm not buying this crap any more
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:01 AM
Nov 2012

All campaigns must go into elections believing they have the ability to win. They all must be prepared to lose. Romney and his handlers were well aware of the problems they faced: years of being referred to as a conservative milquetoast; the near collapse of his campaign in September; the jokes made about his relationship with Ryan; descriptions in the media of a tied race. Even they must have seen in their own polls that their support was declining, even with their "unskewing."

Even if they believed they would win, they were veteran operatives who have experienced loss before. Indeed, Romeny's career had many more political losses than victories. He should be steeled against such optimism.

If there is something that Romney's handlers should learn, it's demographics: you moved so far to the lunatic fringe that your support declines.

Kaleva

(36,315 posts)
24. Even the smartest people are prone to delude themselves.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:19 PM
Nov 2012

During WWII, General Eisenhower dismissed the intel he was getting that the Germans were preparing to launch a large scale winter offensive because he believed the German military was too weak to do such a thing. Many thousands of Americans died in what is called the "Battle of the Bulge" needlessly as a result of Ike's decision to go by what he believed over the intelligence reports.

 

railsback

(1,881 posts)
9. KOS has a much, much more plausible antecdote
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:05 AM
Nov 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1160010/-Rethinking-shellshocked-Romney?showAll=yes

A total scam, to keep the base from losing faith and to keep the big donors donating. That's why they're so pissed off. Romney lied to them, too.

Cha

(297,378 posts)
12. Thanks for the link, railsback.. As Axe said before the election..
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:25 AM
Nov 2012

"we'll see in a couple of weeks who's bluffing"

Edit: I like this quote in there.. "they're so anti-science it extends to all forms of being anti-evidence, including the polling concerning the very thing they're trying to win."

Talk about "schadenfreude-tastic"!

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
10. And another big thing the Romney campaign did not predict was that
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:21 AM
Nov 2012

10 percent of Republicans voting voted for Obama.

Sam

UCmeNdc

(9,600 posts)
13. Propaganda to hide the true con game?
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:29 AM
Nov 2012

Or Option B: admit that your data looked much like everyone else's and that you're smart enough to know that all along that you were losing, but that the rules of the game prevented you from publicly admitting that. That's partially because, via the 'bandwagon effect,' it might depress turnout, but mostly because it would depress contributions from big money donors who don't want to waste their money -- thus becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy because you then wouldn't have the money you'd need to even have a shot at winning.

Do you think that the Sheldon Adelsons of the world would be willing to open up their checkbooks for future races, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, when they find out that they've simply been lied to about Republican chances in order to keep the dollars flowing? Remember, these are guys who've been promised that they were getting the unvarnished truth about the campaign -- the platinum-club insider access -- and now they're finding out that they're getting grifted, just as standard campaign operating practice. (As you no doubt know, Karl Rove is having parallel problems with his American Crossroads donors.)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1160010/-Rethinking-shellshocked-Romney

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
22. I figured propaganda except for 2 little factoids...
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:49 PM
Nov 2012

1. He didn't bother to write a concession speech.

2. He did bother to spend $25K on his little self-congratulatory fireworks display, which was not cancelled until he lost.

And 2 personal opinions: in the concession pix, HRH Ice Queen Ann is stoically holding back tears, not her usual aggressive, snarly smile, and Ryan's wife looks really sad as well. The wives never saw it coming.

I do suspect Ryan saw through it. He alone looked happy on stage. He figured it out in time to save his old job. Piteh.

Cha

(297,378 posts)
15. It is a Good Article! just got finished reading it all.. love this excerpt!
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:21 AM
Nov 2012
Though Romney said he was “severely conservative,” it was the Obama team that played its hand conservatively. They, too, planned for fewer Democrats to show up at the polls, but in their case it was so that their campaign organization would work twice as hard. On election night in Ohio, when turnout exceeded their intentionally conservative estimates in some districts, they knew that they’d win the state 45 minutes before the networks called it.

JBoy

(8,021 posts)
16. Or maybe they're just incredibly out of touch,
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:34 AM
Nov 2012

And with their heads up their asses didn't realize how much they pissed off the majority of the electorate.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
32. That, and incredibly racist.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:53 PM
Nov 2012

“We just didn’t expect the African-American vote to be so high.”

After 4 years of the most open racism I have seen since the early 1960's, including racial insults to the President, they really thought no one would vote against them?????
edited to add:
This line from the article:
"If you’re basing your entire campaign on white people, it leaves you little margin of error. That's where Romney’s troubles as a candidate hurt him."
which should have read: ""If you’re basing your entire campaign on white MEN...."

 

JRLeft

(7,010 posts)
19. This a Gawd Damn lie!
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 10:12 AM
Nov 2012
One Romney aide also included the much-debated changes to welfare requirements as a policy aimed to win over African-American voters.

OldHippieChick

(2,434 posts)
21. With their heads buried in the sand
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:05 PM
Nov 2012

Let them continue to be anti-immigrant, anti-women and anti-gay and our country will continue to be anti-Repuke.

 

libdem4life

(13,877 posts)
23. add in anti-youth...because as Obamacare goes into effect, they will greatly benefit.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:03 PM
Nov 2012

They are awake and voting...Hallelujah!!

Webster Green

(13,905 posts)
28. The pyro-techs they hired took the stuff back to the shop.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:37 PM
Nov 2012

One doesn't simply go to a store and purchase class A fireworks shells and mortars.

 

bongbong

(5,436 posts)
27. Numbers guy?
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:35 PM
Nov 2012

> Mitt Romney says he is a numbers guy, but in the end he got the numbers wrong.

Flip-Flopper was never, is not, and will never be a "numbers guy". He is just a high-class grifter, thief, tax evader, draft dodger, coward, and white-collar super-criminal.

Cleita

(75,480 posts)
29. The trouble with spread sheets is that they are two dimensional.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:43 PM
Nov 2012

Life is three dimensional and if you don't look at the flesh and blood buried in all those numbers you will miss a lot.

ffr

(22,671 posts)
33. Never underestimate your opponent. We didn't. They did.
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:10 PM
Nov 2012
According to those involved, it was a mix of believing anecdotes about party enthusiasm and an underestimation of their opponents’ talents.
We worked the GOTV, while they wandered aimlessly through the same neighborhoods, relying almost exclusively on deceptive and negative advertising.



We did the hard work, planned and were guided by an effective strategy. Our leaders knew precisely where to put resources, their leaders were arrogant neocons and neocon wannabees who were more concerned with skimming money off the top than winning an election. We had passion for our candidate, they had money. Knowledge, strategy and passion wins.

underpants

(182,844 posts)
34. They whole thing was a consultant scam to bleed money out of the campaign
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:00 PM
Nov 2012

The smaller factor is they they didn't realize the "independents" included TeaBaggers who no longer called themselves Republicans.

The larger factor is that WE (in the Va - the Kaine campaign I know of first hand) flat out OUT WORKED them. Their ORCA program was a disaster from the techonilogic side to the implementation side....and it was was a scam on their own campaign.

amborin

(16,631 posts)
36. why was Ann crying in Colorado before the election? and a repub statisticisan also predicted Obama
Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:02 PM
Nov 2012

would win....i think Romney knew he had little chance; and his internals suggested this also.

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