I raise politics and this campaign with everyone I meet or see. The most common reaction, in fact, it is about the only reaction is:

"I hate and fear Trump, but I cannot trust her and I can't vote for her. "

Político reported that 6 in 10 people actively mistrust and dislike her. That is an emotional response. Emotions are very rarely changed by logic or facts. Ad execs know this and use it every day. So does trump. Apparently, Team Hillary does not.

When almost 2/3ds of the voting population dislikes our candidate. How do we counter that emotion?

This is not about talking to random folk on the street. Nor your friends either.

Campaign has lists of targeted Democratic and Democratic-leaning undecideds voters who need to be reminded how important this election is.

and they are the ones saying they don't like or trust her.

They have the data they need to target persuadable and receptive voters. They need people to get out and talk to those voters face to face.

Best regards!

have suggestions for you (obviously this can include many things -- not just talking to locals). Both candidates have high "unfavorable" numbers. One of them is going to win the election, and we should be doing everything we can to support our candidate.

Media finally attacking Trump, Hillary won media cycles on Tuesday, Thursday and today. Pneumonia polling hurt her this week.

His support remains steady, despite 20-30 gaffes, any one of which would have shitcanned anybody else's campaign or even political career.

Hers is trending down, and there is no sign from the campaign that they even acknowledge that fact, much less have a plan to turn things around.

Houston, we have a problem. Hello? Hello? Anyone there?

She better figure something out quickly.

It's over.

Makes me wonder why these folks are even on this site if they just wanna give up at the first sign of trouble. Let's not be wimps about this, Romney was cleaning Obama's clock at this time in 2012. We haven't had the first debate yet, fold need to calm down.

She's got to hold those two states most importantly and keep the rest of the states blue in a worst case scenario. I still think she will win Florida. The demographics there are way more in her favor than Ohio. But the Obama coalition has got to turn out for her. If they were as energized about Obama in 08 and 12 then they have to want to preserve his legacy and not let it get destroyed by Donald Trump. But PA and Virginia, particularly PA is key right now I think.

I wish the media would take us off their damn list.

While OH does lean more GOP than does PA, it's a matter of a few percentage points.

(800,000) takes it right back out of play. The Prez was just here Tuesday (I got caught in the traffic nightmare of that going home from work) and Philly is fired up. Bill Clinton was here over the Labor Day weekend at the "Made in America Concert" pushing for voter registration... And between Hillary & Biden (for the Scranton area connections) and President Obama for here and Pittsburgh (if he goes out there), we should do well. We have a relatively new (2014) Democratic governor who was born and raised in central PA who will be stumping for her and McGinty for Senator, to help throw Toomey the hell out.

If anything, the likes of Romney or McCain were more palatable to the GOPers here. In fact, they probably would have gone for Christie if he were on the ticket. The Republicans that I know who live in some of the rim counties are disgusted (many of them are college educated). They will probably not vote the top of the ticket or will vote Johnson but will still vote R for the rest of their tickets.

Edit to add - we don't have early voting here in PA like OH and the last time they tried the Voter ID crap here, it and the governor were thrown out.

and vice versa for the GOP

2004:

Ohio +2.1% GOP win, PA +2.5% Dem win

2008:

Ohio 4.59% Dem win, PA +10.32% Dem win

2012

Ohio 3% Dem win, PA 5.4% Dem win

If Trump is ahead in OH by 5%, he's within striking range of Pennsylvania

The next round of Pennsylvania polls will likely induce some real panic.

Of course, the corollary could be that Trump isn't really 5% ahead in Ohio.

but 04 is 4.6% different, 08 is 5.73% different, with only 12 being 2.4% different. Ohio and PA are more like 5-6% apart than 2-3%

OH did in 2000 and 2004. Your assertion also leaves out the state on the other side of PA, which should also be weighted as an indicator - and that's NJ. Also the states to the north like NY and to the south - both MD & DE, all have gone blue for years. I.e., except for the less-populated western side, PA is blueville, notably because of the more populous eastern side of the state.

The states around OH include the red KY, WV, and IN, so OH is lost in redville. As a note one of my brother-in-laws was born and raised in OH and much if his family is still there, so I do understand the transitionalist role that state finds itself in.

is that Hillary is from Chicago and grew up in the 'burbs... And that area is a close neighbor to Iowa which seemed to help Obama with capturing it given his time spent in IL as a state Senator and U.S. Senator. I don't know what she has done in the other MW states, but it seems (if she wanted to) that she could tap into her MW roots a bit more to flip Iowa back. But I know it's the bigger states that give the bigger prize!

They've never liked her in Iowa--even the Democrats. Remember she finished 3rd there in 2008.

Her other home/adopted state of Arkansas, seemed to really fly the coop after 1996. With the entrenched divisiveness that has marked the past couple decades, it will be a while before shifting certain states back to blue (like WV).

Vigourous voter registration in both states make them possible wins.

but as you know - states like OH & FL have done everything they could to keep people from voting - notably impacting their "custom" of having the opportunity for early voting (and/or events like "Souls to the Polls&quot . Here in PA, we don't have early voting but we did go through 1 major effort to block the vote that made a lot of news and actually impacted may older GOP voters (Voter ID law), and that was ultimately torpedoed just before the 2012 election.

it used to be you had to request the ballot like 30 days in advance but now it appears it can be requested by Nov. 1st but then the ballot has to be returned by Nov 4th (at least for this year's election). When I was in college out of state, I voted absentee every election (both primaries and generals).

I know I have asked my own State Senator last year about whether the legislature is looking at some sort of change in voting - notably early voting... and he said there had been some informal discussion. IMHO, we need to have that option. I think they are looking at possibly voting online IIRC, but am not sure where that is.

... means someone with the campaign sees it as needing attention. I suspect it will stay blue, but we don't need to take it for granted.

... you're wrong, necessarily. I do think PA stays blue. I just get wary of too much complacency and self assurance having an effect on turnout. PA flipped Harrisburg because of hard work in the trenches - which you likely contributed to. But don't assume the GOP minions aren't working feverishly to turn back that tide. Not necessarily for Trump, but certainly for the down ticket races.

I grew up near Pittsburgh. Yuns keep up the good work beat back those republican jag-offs!

And right after his rally in front of the Art Museum, the President headed over to 18th and Market for a big fundraiser. Chaching!

I do know the GOP here will definitely vote GOP down-ballot and may leave the top of the ticket blank or split and go to Johnson, but the hope is that some of them just stay home.

I think there is often to much "worry" about "complacency" during Presidential elections. If you look at the stats, the turnout usually DOES spike during Presidentials here (on average, in the 60% range)... but then in off-years, folks go back to sleep and we're back down to a lackadaisical 40%.

I would rather worry about getting people out to vote in 2018 - or better, EVERY year. There is an election every single year and people need to realize that the folks who impact them the most are usually running during those off-year elections.

And here's to you from an opposite side of the stater -

The big cities will turn out for Clinton. Whatever one might think of Rendell, he's got his finger on the pulse of the state always. His turnout operation in Philly is a pretty well-oiled machine. Further, the GOP no longer controls Allegheny County (Pgh) government.

They drive to the most Red-friendly village they can find, grab two guy sitting under a Confederate flag, and ask them what they think of the election.

Pittsburgh and Philly alone are enough to push PA into the blue. Add State College and Harrisburg and it's pretty damn solid.

That doesn't mean we should take anything for granted, of course, but the media is deliberately misrepresenting Trump's strength among PA voters.

And when you add Scranton (and the Lehigh Valley in general). Boom! Especially when Joe B. does his thing there!

Remember, the polls take a few days to catch up to the news. I can see things turning back her way now that she is out there again and kicking ass more than ever. After voting "against" Hillary twice, I am more excited than ever before to cast my first vote for her. Realizing that I feel that way made me hopeful that others are starting to as well.

Polls are a lagging indicator. Rekindling birtherism can not inure to his benefit beyond his base.

Hillary was in the barrel over her health scare and Deplorables comments.... These last couple of days of polls reflect that. Now Trump is in the barrel.

Trump didn't take any question and made only the most cursory of statements. Why? His henchmen have no effective answers at the time. I'm not sure there are any.

He strikes out when he thinks he is in a position of strength.

When he thinks he is losing or outgunned he cowers.

He was feeling himself with his rise in the polls and decided to throw down.

Let's face it, normal everyday people are not staying plugged into every percentage point change on the polls, What they are hearing are the breathless pronouncements of the cable news pundits and the headline news on the major channels and newspapers. The first debate, I predict, will be one of the most watched in history. In one corner, Reality Star and self promoter Donald Trump. In the other, a former First Lady, US Senator, Secretary of State and the first woman a major political party nominated as their candidate for POTUS, Hillary Clinton.

I think and sincerely hope what will be on stark display will be the difference between a smart, knowledgeable, experienced public servant who has a grasp of the issues, and a carnival sideshow huckster who has nothing to offer but platitudes, insults and and empty rhetoric.

If the polls don't start to change positively for HRC after that first debate, then I'll begin to get somewhat concerned.

But even then, it will take a monumental fail by the Clinton campaign to lose the electoral advantage she currently has in her column.

Nate's models include a kind of momentum: it assumes trends continue. The last few days have been rough on her polling. If the slide in her polls stop that number will rebound a bit. Happened last week too before the derpfest.


Remember that number is not her probability of winning. It is the models GUESS at the probability of her winning.

That's when we will get a real idea of how much damage the health episode did.

Trump's momentum will likely be blunted and reversed because of renewed talk of birtherism.

and wonder how low it will go. It makes absolutely no sense, especially given the absolute horse sh*t show of today...I'm not really understanding why this thing hasn't plateaued. I don't understand who is being polled and what possibly can be causing such a downward shift. Daily Kos still has Hillary at a 73%. Why such a disparity?

I'm not convinced that next week's debates will change anything. tRump is such a fool, and the press continues to drool over him. It's absolute madness and in this Alice in Wonderland like scenario we are in, nothing makes any sense.

Am I worried? You bet! We've got a bunch of morons in MSM and a good chunk of the electorate is ignorant as hell and believes whatever the MSM dishes out. Pure entertainment and ratings and making this into a circus freak show is what it's all about. Hillary doesn't "entertain".

There's a fine line between being a "debbie downer" and worry wart and keeping our heads in the sand. This ain't politics as usual. This is the hijacking of a party and hijacking of a presidency, unless we all figure out what the hell to do to turn this thing around.

She's having a very good week now. And Trump looks like a chump again today.

I'm thinking it's all thanks to people thinking she's on her deathbed. She'll prove them wrong and we'll be above 60 very soon.

I was told by many people that this would never happen.

It has been a long downward march towards a 50%-50% dead heat since her chances were a very comfortable 89.3% on August 14th - right after the the Democratic convention.

PA hasn't been polled in three weeks. There will likely be some soon and they likely won't be pretty.

I was wrong during my 2008 and 2012 freakouts, so let's hope I go 3 for 3.

Get out, volunteer, canvass, make calls and GOTV.

That is how we change the polls.

Every Kerry state + va and co - at worst.

This place is turning into Jones Town.


Let's see how things go for the debates
and remember
Not long ago he had a only a 9 percent chance of winning.
Numbers move fast in both directions.

Not sure why so many DU'ers are acting so passive? It is odd.

YESSSSS

On the other had, look at the aggregate electoral vote projections. Just sayin', part II.

still has her at 86% (for Bayesian probability). http://election.princeton.edu/

Damn.

Ugh.

The bias in the media, hundreds of millions if not billions and decades spent trying to bring her down with lies, and the views so many still have when it comes to women. Electing the first woman for President won't be easy. Specially when that woman is unapologetically ambitious and progressive.