2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPatrick Murray of Monmouth University's polling unit drops some pro HRC hints
@Davidzteich @ThePlumLineGS In field with multiple polls. Prelim suggests not quite as bad for HRC as last week. Also, underlines volatility
https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777921497558093825
Johnny2X2X
(19,193 posts)I think we're about to see a bump for HRC, but we need to see it soon.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I don't believe in observer effects in opinion polling.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)And with a good ground game in that state she could pull even.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)piechartking
(617 posts)and let me tell you, I cannot WAIT until Georgia is Blue.
abetterkid
(47 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts):/
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)understatement is our M.O.
read the entire tweet flow.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)"not quite as bad" could be up by 3-4 nationally, or it could mean losing Ohio and Iowa by 3-5 instead of 4-6.
democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)As much as we think Trump is irresponsible and reckless, I think his forceful reaction will help him, not hurt him. I am more worried now than ever about the election.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)While forecast models/crystal balls just catching up with Clinton's bad week, sense things have started shifting again
https://twitter.com/pollsterpatrick/status/777917928264073216
triron
(22,026 posts)know about crystal balls but Sam Wang has HRC back at 88% (Bayesian).
http://election.princeton.edu/
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Big fan of Sam Wang. Parsimonious and powerful model.
triron
(22,026 posts)being facetious. I have some acquaintance with Sabato; he is good at predictions as well.