251 electoral votes.

Basically it seems we can't fall below that in electoral contests. Makes winning much easier.

that refers to the pretty much solid Dem states that always vote blue and have voted blue in most recent elections. Right now that represents about 240 of the 270 needed for Clinton to win.

Gotta make more blue babies.

and I don't hearken back to the Kerry election very often. IAE, we're still in good shape, that's the important part.

Congenital heart defect.
I know that's not what you meant, but...

Yeah, we're still sitting on a base EV tally around 240. Clinton has about 300 ways to win this, Trump has one or two.

Not to be an anti-concernist, but things are not that bad overall. I do stil want a really decisive win, though. Anything less than 350 might make me feel a bit disappointed.

Because of the analysis people provide from them. It's a full days worth of entertainment.

I realize it is positive but it just doesn't sound good.

It's also the set of states Kerry won. I think he deserves that much credit at least.

My model (which I update and post about weekly) consistently has Hillary at 65-85% of a probability of win.

That's a heavy favorite.

I would prefer a 330 electoral vote win to a 273 vote win. But I don't see many plausible scenarios where she falls below 273 votes.

9/11/update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

has hrc win prob. back at 80% (from 79 yesterday).

poll in North Carolina has HRC +2 head to head plus early voting going well for her.