2016 Postmortem

factfinder_77

(841 posts) Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:32 PM Sep 2016

HRC +9 in PA, +4 in NC (new state polls) -democracycorps

http://www.democracycorps.com/Battleground-Surveys/consolidating-democrats-the-strategy-that-gives-a-governing-majority/

On the eve of the first major presidential debate, the latest likely voter survey of the battleground states on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows Hillary Clinton settled into a strong lead in Pennsylvania, a modest one in North Carolina, and essentially tied in Ohio and Nevada.[1] Her overall margin has narrowed from where we had it across the battleground in June. Nothing comes easily in this election year, but the Clinton margin should grow from the structure of the race revealed in this analysis. In the two-person ballot, her margin grows 2-points to a 5-point lead across these states and she takes the lead in Nevada. And if the 3rd party candidates weaken, as is normal, Clinton disproportionately benefits

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HRC +9 in PA, +4 in NC (new state polls) -democracycorps (Original Post) factfinder_77 Sep 2016 OP

Those are probably leaked internals democrattotheend Sep 2016 #1

Pennsylvania also adjoins New York and New Jersey. I think their politics are more similar than OH's pnwmom Sep 2016 #5

Bias? triron Sep 2016 #2

Nevada right now is pretty much 50-50 so should be doable. LisaL Sep 2016 #3

Are vadermike Sep 2016 #4

the 11 point spread between OH and PA seems very unlikely. geek tragedy Sep 2016 #6

2/3rds PA pop lives from Harrisburg and east DeminPennswoods Sep 2016 #10

Lichtman may have shot himself in the foot. Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #7

knr triron Sep 2016 #8

This triron Sep 2016 #9

NC looks good. I hope we get rid of our governor too. yardwork Sep 2016 #11

Me too...he is the worst. nt Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #13

With those numbers.She may very well get Ohio...nt Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #12

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)

1. Those are probably leaked internals

Reply to factfinder_77 (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:35 PM

Sep 2016

Democracy Corp. is a Democratic pollster. Still, I like the numbers, except Ohio.

It's weird that there is such a large gap in polling between Pennsylvania and Ohio. Usually Pennsylvania is a little bluer than Ohio, but not by this much.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)

5. Pennsylvania also adjoins New York and New Jersey. I think their politics are more similar than OH's

Reply to democrattotheend (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 06:54 PM

Sep 2016

triron

(22,006 posts)

2. Bias?

Reply to factfinder_77 (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:48 PM

Sep 2016

Looks good though. Given GOTV efforts N. Carolina is looking good for hrc. Perhaps Nevada will come along.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)

3. Nevada right now is pretty much 50-50 so should be doable.

Reply to triron (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 06:06 PM

Sep 2016

vadermike

(1,415 posts)

4. Are

Reply to factfinder_77 (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 06:44 PM

Sep 2016

These good polling organization ? Looks good

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

6. the 11 point spread between OH and PA seems very unlikely.

Reply to factfinder_77 (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 07:08 PM

Sep 2016

+2 PA and -2 OH would make more sense, as would +6 PA and +2 OH

DeminPennswoods

(15,286 posts)

10. 2/3rds PA pop lives from Harrisburg and east

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #6)

Sat Sep 24, 2016, 04:32 PM

Sep 2016

Only the western part of the state is somewhat similar to Ohio, the other 2/3rds of the population lives in Harrisburg and east. They're part of the Bos-to-Wash megalopolis.