IIRC, the public polling began to converge to the Obama people's internal data in the final weeks.

Gallup had Mitt up by 8pt and surging the final days up to the Election

I called all 50 states correctly based just on state polls.

the electoral control panel pretty well. It does seem that if Clinton-Kaine gets the vote out in SE Pennsylvania, the Keystone State lights up blue for the Democratic ticket and Toomey is done for.

I'll take both outcomes.

The campaigns buy voter lists and contact real, known registered voters. The media polls use random digit dialing and believe what respondents tell them about their registration/party.

And Plouffe is exactly right that Clinton will come out of Philly alone with nearly a 500k lead, add in her margin in the abutting counties and it's enough to offset the R vote in the rest of the state.

State in a national election. The only thing that worried me a little was the media constantly saying The Con had the votes of all those displaced voters whose jobs left the country. I HOPE all those former steel, auto, and other mfg. workers are smart enough to know The Con's lying when he says "I'm gonna bring all those jobs back." He won't because he can't!

but she wins the mega population centers.

The rural part of PA I'm from could go full-blown Trump and it won't matter. I don't think that's going to happen either though.

Plouffe, Simas and Axelrod

David Simas told me in July 2012 that the polls would even up around Labor Day, but that we, the electorate, should chill out. He said he would pull out his hair so that we didn't have to.

He was right, and Obama buried Willard. May this year be a repeat performance.

to God's ears.

of the march of the concern trolls. They won't be far behind.

Look, here comes one now......

We live in a small town north of PA and our county is pretty red, but the democrats here are organized and active. If we can't turn this area blue, we'll make the margins Trump wins buy very small.

I encourage everyone to do what they can in their areas.

They tried, though. Back when there was a push in all the blue/purple states with Red legislatures to push proportional electoral votes (while keeping red states Winner Take All) I called and spoke to my (Republican) rep and got him to acknowledge that it was wrong and unfair unless every state does it. He's in a 49/51 district even though it's the most gerrymandered district in the country, and he knows he has to keep a certain % of Dems on his side.

they never poll black voters anyway