2016 Postmortem

radius777

(3,635 posts) Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:24 AM Sep 2016

Betting markets react: Hillary 68.3% (+5.2) Trump 30.5% (-3.8%)

https://electionbettingodds.com/4hr.html

This morning (after some bad polls were released, and 538's shitty projections) she was down around 60% and he was up around 36%.

The upward movement today is mainly within the past 2 hours, which is the imo is the most objective metric of who won the debate. the fact that it moved so sharply (when on a typical day it barely moves) says that she won 'bigly' and he was a disaster. many people are saying

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Betting markets react: Hillary 68.3% (+5.2) Trump 30.5% (-3.8%) (Original Post) radius777 Sep 2016 OP

I bet his own Casinos would yuiyoshida Sep 2016 #1

Sam Wang triron Sep 2016 #2

that's a polling model, not betting markets radius777 Sep 2016 #3

HRC bayesian triron Sep 2016 #4

yuiyoshida

(41,833 posts)

1. I bet his own Casinos would

Reply to radius777 (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:27 AM

Sep 2016

Bet against him.

triron

(22,007 posts)

2. Sam Wang

Reply to radius777 (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:38 AM

Sep 2016

has her at 87%!

radius777

(3,635 posts)

3. that's a polling model, not betting markets

Reply to triron (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:54 AM

Sep 2016

wang's model hasn't changed in awhile, iirc, because its a model based upon polling and other factors, like any other, like nate's etc.

betting markets are the only metric that moves by the minute, because it is based upon people placing bets/wages in real time:

State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:40AM EDT on Sep 27, 2016
State betting is from PredictIt. Betfair will be included when it has a liquid market for states
Candidates' chances in the Presidency odds column are from Betfair (over $50 million bet)

betting markets are also the most objective, and most accurate, imo, than any polling model.

triron

(22,007 posts)

4. HRC bayesian

Reply to radius777 (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 01:05 AM

Sep 2016

probability went from 79 this morning to 87 tonite. I know it's not a betting market but I'll take it.

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