2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSocial Security adds to the debt...
this is what I'm hearing from the right. When asked how I get answers like this,
Payouts are exceeding incomes. Ergo, it costs more than it pays and is part of the deficit.
How so? The trust fund reserves will last another 20 years.
The trust fund reserve is basically a legal fiction. Surpluses are paid into a "trust fund", sure, but congress can take those surpluses and spend them with the promise to pay them back. The trust fund does mean that, starting from the time when the surpluses end (expected to be 2021), to the time when the fund is exhausted (expected to be 2033), congress is going to have to keep SS payments at their current CPI adjusted levels using some source of funds (likely debt). After 2033, it is entitled to lower SS payouts to whatever can be provided given merely the current revenue from the SS tax.
Basically, there is no trust fund reserve. When congress takes from the trust fund, it is essentially incurring debt (unless it plans to raise new taxes to make up the expected shortfall, which is unlikely). And, I suppose, it could always just renig on the trust fund.
When FDR created SS, the life expectancy was only 60. Hardly anyone was supposed to collect social security, which would presumably leave a large surplus stashed around for a rainy day. Now, the life expectancy has risen to around 80 (I think it's 77 for men and 82 for women).
Correct the supposed trust fund is filled with nothing but IOUs. Even though Socialist inSecurity was a scam the day FDR the crippled douchebag enacted it, he at least made it its own fund where the money paid into it could only go to Socialist inSecurity payments. That lasted all of 30 years when Lyndon Baines Johnson (democrat) moved the payroll payments into the general fund. You see he had to be able to fund his Guns and Butter program to as he said "get those niggers to vote democratic for 200 years".
Grotesque I know but try to hang in..
Before the trust fund was created, there essentially was no guarantee of what would happen during a shortfall. For a great deal of time afterward as well, there was no automatic adjustment for CPI. The trust fund was created because of controversy over using surpluses as just another source of revenue (essentially just making SS taxes - the amount that's being paid out an incredibly regressive form of income tax. People thought that they should be some further guarantee. However, it's really just created confusion, some people thinking that congress is just storing up money (which would be literally the dumbest thing you could imaginably do with the surplus), and other people, such as yourself, self-righteously bloviating about your supposed right to have that money just stored away doing nothing but incurring inflation.
So this is how you all plan to argue the plan to privatize everything? Amazing.
I mean, if you don't retire between 2021 and 2033, the trust fund is really not concern of yours at all. It would've made no difference to the amount you'd receive anyway. You're not being robbed, you were never owed anything under any sense anyway.
What the hell are these idiots saying? Does any of this make sense to any of you?
If anyone can suggest a good place to get the knowledge I need to debate (I know) these baggers I'd appreciate a link or suggestion.
Thanks.
steelmania75
(864 posts)Life expectancy is increasing, and we need a combination of revenue and spending cuts(especially defense) to pay down debt and have the money to invest in education, green jobs, and infrastructure.
nichomachus
(12,754 posts)Increased life expectancy has been accounted for by the actuaries. That's a nonsense argument from conservatives.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)haikugal
(6,476 posts)If someone manages to live that long they often have health issues and have been working for more than 30 years. Depending on the type of work they do and the medical care they've had access to they may be pretty beat up. I have to say that those of my generation provided for our parents and ourselves and I want for those who come behind us to have it as well.
With healthcare this may get better, hopefully but don't forget that many were robbed by the housing market and crash on wall street.
I agree about defense spending but the Bush tax cuts have been huge and I want them repealed.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)A progressive government would be lowering the retirement age, increasing the funding to pay for it, and stimulating job growth by coaxing more people into retirement.
forestpath
(3,102 posts)haikugal
(6,476 posts)Why not allow people to retire earlier and open up opportunities for the young? I wish we had a progressive government...we have to keep working toward that.
LiberalFighter
(51,089 posts)Even then you are asking those that work jobs that take a toll on workers physically. Not everyone has a cushy job or can work until they reach a higher retirement age.
shawn703
(2,702 posts)There's a finite number of jobs, so raising the retirement age increases unemployment. If older Americans need to hold onto their jobs longer, those jobs are unavailable to younger workers.
qwlauren35
(6,150 posts)Young people definitely need jobs!
Roy Ellefson
(279 posts)raise the cap and lower the retirement age
nichomachus
(12,754 posts)Is that the cap on Social Security taxes was set to cover 90 percent of the wages in the country. Now that the one percent has arranged to have more income funneled to them, the taxes cover only 80 percent of the income. All we need to do is raise the cap on Social Security taxes to cover 90 percent of the income and Social Security will be fine for the next 100 years.
The fact of life expectancy is totally irrelevant. The formula is re-examined periodically by actuaries and adjusted to new demographics. Demographics aren't the problem. Income disparity brought about by conservative policies is the problem.
Your concern is appreciated.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)This helps. Why do I feel a need to assure you I'm not a concern troll? It really does concern me and I worry about what both parties may do. I think 'trusting' is part of the reason we get taken to the cleaners and I want us all awake for this next big battle. Thanks again.
LiberalFighter
(51,089 posts)GeorgeGist
(25,323 posts)doesn't reduce debt.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)Blue4Texas
(437 posts)After Clinton, administration borrowed to fund the wars; government paying back as they go so to speak
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Trust fund obligations are already accounted for as part of the national debt. Adding payout of those obligations again would be double booking that debt.
It really doesn't matter much if the government finances its annual deficit through public t-bills sold on the market or intra government debt such as the FICA surplus, the net result is a long term debt obligation that is paid back over time with interest.
Right wingers have wet dreams over zeroing out the trust fund obligations. They can go fuck themselves.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)They see more "harvesting" in their future I'm sure.
msongs
(67,441 posts)haikugal
(6,476 posts)DeeDeeNY
(3,356 posts)haikugal
(6,476 posts)Scuba
(53,475 posts)John2
(2,730 posts)has been robbing Social Security for years to pay for their indiscretions.
Maplegrass
(41 posts)And can easily be fixed permanently by removing the cap.
Why isn't this simple solution applied, then? For the simple reason that everyone is afraid wealthy people will complain of "unfairness," since they will pay in more than they can ever get out.
This is why denying that Social Security is welfare program is counterproductive. As long as we continue to insist that it is nothing more than "insurance," we will be unable to lift the cap.
Or means-test, for that matter, which would be even better.
eridani
(51,907 posts)It could certainly be skewed to further benefit them. We could lift the cap on yearly benefits and replace it with an upward trending line with a slope of about 0.01. That is the only "means testing" necessary. People now maxing out at ~$32K/year are only 1% or so of beneficiaries anyway.
AAO
(3,300 posts)haikugal
(6,476 posts)but they are openly aggressive and ignorant. There is no link because I wrote it. What do you want a link for? I'll happily give you the link to the forum if you pm me.
on edit...
You didn't mean me you meant that they never give a link to back up their claims. No they never back up their BS.
Kaleva
(36,345 posts)The Trust Fund is part of the national debt and for every dollar paid out of it, the federal debt decreases by a dollar. As there is no actual money in the Fund, just special bonds, the Federal govt. will have to borrow another dollar thus the overall debt remains the same. What does add to the debt is the interest the govt. pays on the money it borrowed from the Trust Fund. About 116 billion a year the last time I looked.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)What it doesn't do is increase the debt.
Kaleva
(36,345 posts)to provide the funds to pay back what was borrowed from the Trust Fund.
Sophiegirl
(2,338 posts)And his stance on a SS lock-box?
haikugal
(6,476 posts)Is this what you're talking about?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/15/994921/-Al-Gore-was-Right-We-DID-Need-a-Lockbox
eridani
(51,907 posts)That has not channged by very much. Reduction of infant mortality is what dropped life expectancy at birth so much. If you die at the age of two, you are irrelevant, as you neither contribute to nor collect Social Security.
Also, the surplus in the trust fund was built up to prepay baby boomer retirements by doubling the FICA tax in the early 80s. It is FUCKING SUPPOSED to be going down now. Gen Y is another demographic lump, so we'll eventually need to build a surplus again.
Kaleva
(36,345 posts)The life expectancy of a 21 year old today is higher then it was for a 21 year old back in 1938.
The average 21 year old today can expect to draw several more years of benefits then the average 21 year old back in the late 1930's could.
eridani
(51,907 posts)The relevant number is further life expectancy from age 60.
Kaleva
(36,345 posts)who worked and paid FICA taxes but died before they collected any benefits.
Here is a link where if you scroll down to table 1, you'll see about a 20% increase from 1940 to 1990 of adults who live to the age of 65. While life expectency of 65 year olds has increased only by about 5 years on average from 1940 to 1990, the percentage of population surviving from age 21 to age 65 has gone way up.
http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html
eridani
(51,907 posts)Raising the retirement age is just going to exclude more of them.