2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAn interesting factoid, but relevant, I believe...
These new polls are showing Clinton leads, and we all love that. The "interesting factoid" is that the polls are starting to show her lead as being greater than the margin of error. That's an important threshhold, as it drives the amount of uncertainty down. Once that threshhold is crossed, it gets harder and harder to reverse it.
The next important threshhold might be: will she start polling over 50%, especially in the 3 or 4-way polls? Conventional wisdom says this won't happen, but this is nothing if not an unconventional election. If she gets over that number, we're looking at a potential landslide here. I'm still hopeful.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)having yet another really bad week, although he brought all of it on himself.
HRC's bringing up Ms. Machado in the first debate has turned Trump into a raving jackass. Well, ok, he was already a raving jackass. But even more of one now.
Trump was already losing women voters. It's hard to imagine that his case with women voters would do anything but drop like a rock after this week.
Gary Johnson is likely to lose some ground as well in the next round of polling, as some of his supporters begin to realize that he is not altogether current on things. That's the nicest way I can think of to put it.
Wounded Bear
(58,685 posts)you have to wonder sometimes how much that matters. His acolytes are locked in, of course. Hopefully the "undecideds" will get turned off to him by all of the bullshit.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)he can do (so far) to repel decent human beings.