which obviously is a problem in the predictive value of the model; namely that one of the factors is not fully known until election day itself.

personally, i expect johnson to wind up with only about 3% of the vote, certainly not 5%, meaning the model would point to a hillary win after all.


i like the model, but i appreciate its limitations. it's obviously not suited for very precise calculations, so it's a bit silly to worry about its predictions in 2000, for instance, which at the level of precision of this model would have to be called a tie.


what i like about it is that it points out that much of the factors influencing presidential election results are simply a referendum on the performance of the current administration, and that other factors, such as policies, ground games, debate performances, etc., are either not very important, or, more accurately, are not *independently* predictive. i.e., they may themselves be a function of the same fundamental -- if the verdict on the current administration is that it's time to change parties, then it's likely that the challenging party will field a strong candidate who can get support to build a good ground game and do well in debates, etc.

that said, all those things that may not matter as much *do* matter, especially in a close election.


lichtman is handling things worse than his model itself is by hedging. this talk about "breaking the model" is just silly and doesn't serve him no matter what the result is.

As Gary Johnson has begun to get some light shone upon him on the national stage via television interviews, it's apparent to all who have a brain that Johnson doesn't really have a brain himself and he is--well--dumber than 2 bags of hammers. Friends who were going to support him either are not going to vote period or a few are voting for Hillary. They live in swing stages. Hopefully more of his vote will go to Hillary in swing states or they'll sit home and won't help tRump. One thing that is scary is that my friends never bothered to check the guy out, because if they had, they'd have known he was dumb as 2 bags of hammers. They also didn't know that he is as right-winged and anti-people as tRump IS once they dug more into his platform. Johnson also didn't know who Harriet Tubman was allegedly

Additionally, Weld I read is trying to think of a way to abandon that disastrous ticket as fast as he can. IF/When Weld does leave that ticket, I hope Johnson fades into obscurity for EVER.

Thanks Gary