He's locked in around a certain percentage of the overall population, but more and more are coming over to Clinton's side from the ranks of third parties or undecided or unlikely to vote.

go down temporarily during bad times (like immediately after democratic debate) and then goes back to normal.

you've already failed.

Nate Silver has talked about this some.

To me, it's looks like the natural spread is about 3-4 points. Events seem make excursions to 7-8 points (HRC up) or near even. In the absence of a news cycle narrative, the polls will usually "revert to the mean." The fact that the mean is in our favor, so there's that.

The fact is, we are SO polarized, it's pretty unlikely we'll see huge landslides anymore. I admit, it would take a LOT to get me to not vote D.

when it comes to polls. The actual polling averages don't support that narrative. The real story is that Trump has lost around a point and Clinton has gained about two points.

To be the Republican nominee for President and basically be stuck at 40% in national polls means you're already a total failure. He's not Teflon. He's a filthy pan already, and it's only going to get worse.

It also helps when Hillary is accelerating the process and covering him with Velcro afterwards, when it can stick better.