2016 Postmortem

unblock

(52,243 posts) Fri Oct 7, 2016, 10:34 PM Oct 2016

don't look now, but 538 has our senate chances plunging.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast#now

hillary's doing great, but the senate now-cast is down to 39.6%

i don't know if the video helps the senate picture, but that clearly wouldn't yet be reflected in silver's calculations.

15 replies

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don't look now, but 538 has our senate chances plunging. (Original Post) unblock Oct 2016 OP

I wouldn't worry about... VMA131Marine Oct 2016 #1

+1 Dawson Leery Oct 2016 #3

Thank the kochs for that they are slamming the airwaves with congressional ads and ignoring the mucifer Oct 2016 #2

Sam Wang - Princeton Election Consortium asiliveandbreathe Oct 2016 #4

thanks. hopefully, the video locks up the white house and frees up resources for the senate. unblock Oct 2016 #8

And Sam Wang at Princeton Electoral Consortium has Democratic Senate probability @ 66% . . . Journeyman Oct 2016 #5

What happened between a few hours ago and now? still_one Oct 2016 #6

Why does this link contradict yours? still_one Oct 2016 #7

you're looking at the polls-plus model, i'm looking at the now-cast model. unblock Oct 2016 #9

I corrected it still_one Oct 2016 #12

Polls-plus vs. Now-cast n/t Silent3 Oct 2016 #11

The more voters think Hillary will win, the more they feel free to vote GOP for Senate bluestateguy Oct 2016 #10

If the numbers are that volatile over just the past few days... Silent3 Oct 2016 #13

Who would win today is 46.1% right now... titaniumsalute Oct 2016 #14

very volatile. methinks silver shouldn't be providing quasi real-time updates.... unblock Oct 2016 #15

VMA131Marine

(4,139 posts)

1. I wouldn't worry about...

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Fri Oct 7, 2016, 10:35 PM

Oct 2016

After today, the GOP will be lucky to keep the House, let alone the Senate.

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

3. +1

Reply to VMA131Marine (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 7, 2016, 10:37 PM

Oct 2016

mucifer

(23,548 posts)

2. Thank the kochs for that they are slamming the airwaves with congressional ads and ignoring the

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Fri Oct 7, 2016, 10:36 PM

Oct 2016

presidential race.

asiliveandbreathe

(8,203 posts)

4. Sam Wang - Princeton Election Consortium

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Fri Oct 7, 2016, 10:42 PM

Oct 2016

As of October 7, 8:05PM EDT:

Snapshot (168 state polls): Clinton 323, Trump 215 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +3.3%

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 88%, Bayesian 93%

Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.6%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 66%

will most likely be +4 - making 50-50 senate - with WH Kaine will break the tie....

Feingold good to go- duckworth good to go- Bayh good to go- mcginty PA tight - hassan NH tight - lots of attention in PA and NH..and now for the trumpster in the dumpster - imagine - it is going to be a women beating him - with the help of women voters..coultn't happen to a nicer POS..

unblock

(52,243 posts)

8. thanks. hopefully, the video locks up the white house and frees up resources for the senate.

Reply to asiliveandbreathe (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 7, 2016, 10:46 PM

Oct 2016

interestingly, most of the close senate races are in states where hillary should be campaigning anyway, though not all.

it would be interesting if we're confident enough of the white house for her to do some campaigning in missouri and indiana.