2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat happens if Trump steps down or is forced out?
I heard something from Mark Kirk of Illinois that mentioned "emergency provisions" ?
How does that work with early voting underway in many states?
Demsrule86
(68,578 posts)My guess is it would be worse for the GOP if he did...there are many Trump supporters who would be really angry...and they lose and probably down ballot as well if Trump is forced out. Now, if he continues and loses...they still have a shot at the senate and the House .
lapfog_1
(29,205 posts)I'm guessing there is no national solution.
The only thing I've heard is a "sticker" write in... where the RNC comes up with a new name for top of the ticket and prints 100M stickers for people to place on ballots in the "write in" area.
However, they have precious little time to organize that... and there are a number of problems.
1. no agreement on who would be the write in
2. ballots with a sticker could be challenged
3. The trumpanistas would be furious... they are emotionally (unhinged) attached to the Messiah (er, the Donald) so they are likely not to do the write in
4. The write in would likely NOT be included in the last debate
5. The move would likely demoralize republicans from even showing up to vote, causing a massive loss in the House and Senate
avebury
(10,952 posts)The ballot or any other extra markings may invalidate the ballot.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)... the election? Getting nominated by a party doesn't do it automatically in some states, anyway. That's why Stein (and Johnson?) aren't on all ballots.
I doubt that qualifying for the VP spot automatically qualifies you for the pres spot. At least not everywhere. But maybe so...
BSdetect
(8,998 posts)just waiting to be plucked into obscurity
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)would be the most likely - if it could happen
longship
(40,416 posts)This "Trump dropping out" is an utter delusion posted here on DU (and other liberal/Democratic forums) almost since he declared his candidacy. There were many of us who responded that this IS delusional.
Now we are within a month of the presidential election and all the opportunities for Drumpf to step aside have passed. This in spite of all the screeching here that he would. One would hope that reality would sink in. Apparently, that would be wrong.
Just consider what Drumpf stepping aside now would entail.
First, there are fifty different state laws governing a presidential election. Each has its own rules, regulations, deadlines, etc. Civics 101!
At this point, in some states ballots have gone out and voting has begun. Some states are beyond ballot change deadlines.
So how in the fuck does any party, no matter how clever or devious, replace a presidential candidate at this time?
That's right. It just doesn't.
Plus, nobody has proposed any credible mechanism to replace him on the ballots. It's just naive thinking that somehow a miracle happens and the GOP has a new candidate.
Under our system, that just cannot happen.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)several years ago. That was just one state, but if they can organize enough states, it's possible
longship
(40,416 posts)With 50 different laws!!!!
I will stand by my post.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)however, Republicans know that if turnout tanks on their end, it will take the Senate with Trump, and possibly the House if the loss is big enough. (If Clinton wins by 8% or more, it would theoretically put the House in play, despite the gerrymandering... we're now talking 10%+ landslide territory now after this story.)
longship
(40,416 posts)It's a disqualifying shot.
It would be the mother of all clusterfucks for the GOP, and THEY KNOW THAT!!!
That's why most of them are going to tighten their sphincters and ride Drumpf out. That means that they lose 2016, but they just might live to obstruct the Democrats another day.
but apparently being floated around in some repuke high level circles... there was a rumored meeting in DC last night... is a notion that the RNC "nominates" a replacement (essentially un endorsing trump as I don't think they can force him out or remove him from any ballot). They then print up millions of stickers with the candidate they would like to have (Pence?) and send out mailers. They stop the coordination with the Trump campaign and withdraw any monetary or other support (mailing lists, etc). They mail out the stickers with instructions to use these as a "write-in" on vote ballots... which still leaves Trump as the republican nominee in name only.
I don't know how serious this plan is... and ballots with the sticker on them could be challenged.
longship
(40,416 posts)The machine counts the mark, not the sticker. There is no legal recourse in 50 states. Plus, then there are all the ballots which have already been sent out, and/or already voted.
The tangled legal clusterfuck would never, ever get sorted out. And Hillary would win just the same. And when all the challenged ballots are cast aside (all GOP!), the repercussions might reverberate throughout offices local to national.
So GOP, please proceed. Try replacing Drumpf at this time nationally.
N_E_1 for Tennis
(9,728 posts)First the link to ElectoralVote's article
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Oct08.html#item-1
The link I refer to is in this block of the article. In the third paragraph I copied. I will supply the link, it did not survive being copied and pasted.
http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2016/10/gop-repudiation-of-trump-before-118-if-so-then-what.html
If Trump did somehow exit, Republicans should not get their hopes up about a white knight riding to the rescue and vanquishing Hillary Clinton. Early voting has already begun in many states, and 34,000 GOP votes are already cast, including 8,000 in the battleground state of North Carolina and another 5,000 in Florida. In many states, including Florida, Texas, and Virginia, the deadline has passed for candidates' names to be put on the ballot. So, even if Trump drops out, he is going to collect millions of votes. As such, the GOP plan would have to involve gaming the Electoral Collegegiving Trump electors marching orders to vote for Mike Pence, or whomever the replacement might be. Even if the Pence-Trump hybrid somehow collected 270-plus electoral votes, they surely wouldn't go beyond that total by much, which means little margin for error. The odds are not good that all 270 or 275 or 280 electors would be persuaded to go along with the plan, especially since some of them would still be Trump supporters.
But what if, by some chance, the GOP did cobble together 270 EVs for Mike Pence? Well, there are still big problems. In many states, it is illegal for electors to behave faithlessly. Sometimes the penalty is a fine or a jail sentence, but in other cases it is invalidation of the disputed electoral votes. These laws may or may not be constitutional; they have never been challenged in court. If faithless electors cost the Democrats the election, however, then Hillary Clinton's lawyers will be on the case so fast there will be sonic booms from their matching blue neckties. The question would go before the Supreme Court where, presumably by a 4-4 vote, no decision would be made. The general rule is that when the Supreme Court declines to take a case or divides evenly, the decision of the appellate court from which the case came is binding, but only on its circuit.
If you really want to get into the weeds on this, see this article. In short, suppose a Democratic Party official in a state where elector faithlessness is illegal were to send to the President of the Senate, Joe Biden, a set of electoral votes for Trump (assuming Trump won the state). Now the Senate would have two sets of electoral votes, one corresponding to what the electors cast and one corresponding to what the electors should have cast. According to 3 U.S.C. 15, the governor should resolve that. Suppose Pennsylvania is one of the states in question and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) supported the rogue electoral votes for Trump in order to deny Pence 270 EVs. You can probably see where this is going. Oh, wait, you .......cont'd at link.
MineralMan
(146,316 posts)The GOOPers have no way out of this disaster. They nominated Trump. They own him.
Trump: "I am the nominee now!"