2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow badly do you think this will hurt Drumpf in the popular & electoral votes?
Fivethirtyeight's polls-plus have this right now, before any post-video polls have sunk in:
Polls-plus:
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton - 48.4%
Donald Trump - 44.1%
Electoral vote
Hillary Clinton - 313.9
Donald Trump - 224.0
Polls only:
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton - 48.8%
Donald Trump - 43.2%
Electoral vote
Hillary Clinton - 329.7
Donald Trump - 208.2
Now-cast:
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton - 48.9%
Donald Trump - 42.6%
Electoral vote
Hillary Clinton - 337.1
Donald Trump - 200.8
How much do you think this will change?
Myself, I see today's 4.5-6.5 point range turning into an 8-10 point landslide for Hillary Clinton, with predictable coattails for down-ballot races.
I see her winning all the "tossup" states, and probably now Arizona too.
Alaska, Georgia and others might start to be in play.
gademocrat7
(10,658 posts)Alexander
(15,318 posts)bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Ahead?
Alexander
(15,318 posts)This is without a doubt the biggest October surprise ever.
VMA131Marine
(4,139 posts)The Senate and House; proving, once again, that POTUS Barack Obama knows how to play the long game. #thanksobama
Alexander
(15,318 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)this is as huge a fucking implosion right before the election as has ever happened in my memory