2016 Postmortem

Botany

(70,513 posts) Mon Oct 10, 2016, 09:40 AM Oct 2016

Wow. Trump could give us the House. NY Times

Barring an unforeseeable, if not miraculous, political recovery for Mr. Trump, the Republican
exodus from his camp is expected to pick up pace in the coming days as lawmakers digest
his debate performance and receive new polling on how voters are processing his apparent
demise. Even then, Republicans may be hard-pressed to fully desert a nominee who maintains
a powerful following in the party base.

That abiding loyalty is what alarms party strategists: Even if just 5 percent of the most reliable
Republican voters do not vote or cast a ballot only for Mr. Trump, it would ensure that Republicans
lose nearly every close congressional race.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share&_r=1

9 replies

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Wow. Trump could give us the House. NY Times (Original Post) Botany Oct 2016 OP

Yeah Gothmog Oct 2016 #1

that would be something. It would be a real one time opportunity for real progressive change still_one Oct 2016 #2

Yes. If Trump depresses Republican turnout, MineralMan Oct 2016 #3

They (the repugs) might be screwed either way Botany Oct 2016 #4

"... it would ensure that Republicans lose nearly every close congressional race. ..." Coyotl Oct 2016 #5

This... workinclasszero Oct 2016 #6

It could be the perfect storm Botany Oct 2016 #7

Like 2006? BumRushDaShow Oct 2016 #8

Would be the first time he made a real estate deal that benefitted the people! n/t Yavin4 Oct 2016 #9

Gothmog

(145,291 posts)

1. Yeah

Reply to Botany (Original post)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 09:40 AM

Oct 2016

still_one

(92,216 posts)

2. that would be something. It would be a real one time opportunity for real progressive change

Reply to Botany (Original post)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 09:44 AM

Oct 2016

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)

3. Yes. If Trump depresses Republican turnout,

Reply to Botany (Original post)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 09:50 AM

Oct 2016

it could have a huge impact. Especially if Democrats turn out in large numbers. This election is going to be interesting.

It's really easy not to vote. It doesn't take much to discourage some voters from going to the polling place. Trump is providing plenty of reasons for moderate Republicans to stay home.

Botany

(70,513 posts)

4. They (the repugs) might be screwed either way

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 09:53 AM

Oct 2016

moderate republicans might stay home if Trump is still on the ticket but
if Trump is forced to drop out then his crazy base might stay home.

mineral man

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

5. "... it would ensure that Republicans lose nearly every close congressional race. ..."

Reply to Botany (Original post)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 10:04 AM

Oct 2016

The House was in play before the Donald Train went toot toot and fell completely off the rails.

The House Is Back in Play

After the town hall is properly digested, Trump will fall further in the polls. More importantly, the bombshell still has to drop, Trump on tape using the N word.

Rs are in a no win Catch 22, they lose if they support Trump, they lose Teahadist votes if they don't support Trump and all the while Trump is causing fewer and fewer Republicans to vote.

Also, attention will refocus on Trump's many crimes sometime in the next four weeks:

We need a list of Trump's known crimes.

And the Dems will refocus too:

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

6. This...

Reply to Coyotl (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 10:09 AM

Oct 2016

'After the town hall is properly digested, Trump will fall further in the polls. More importantly, the bombshell still has to drop, Trump on tape using the N word.'

We have not yet reached the bottom with Trump, oh hell naw!

The N word tape is out there........

Botany

(70,513 posts)

7. It could be the perfect storm

Reply to Coyotl (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 10:10 AM

Oct 2016

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512492910

The head of OH's GOP wife ...... Trump made the dog throw up.

BumRushDaShow

(129,064 posts)

8. Like 2006?

Reply to Botany (Original post)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 10:14 AM

Oct 2016

<...>

“The Republican Party is caught in a theater fire; people are just running to different exits as fast as they can,” said Mr. Law, who now heads the “super PAC” American Crossroads.

One member of the House Republican leadership, conceding its majority was now in jeopardy, compared the situation to the 2006 scandal involving a Florida congressman’s inappropriate conduct with congressional pages. If that scandal was a house fire, this lawmaker said, Mr. Trump had brought on the political equivalent of a nuclear attack.

For Democrats, Mr. Trump’s rapid unraveling has opened a new universe of political opportunity. They are now confident that they will take control of the Senate, and the party plans this week to lay the groundwork for what could become a sweeping expansion of the political map.

With Mr. Trump sliding in the presidential race, senior Democratic officials had already been nudging Mrs. Clinton to rearrange her campaign schedule and advertising in ways that could help lift Democrats in close congressional races. Now, top Clinton advisers said they would consider doing just that.

<...>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html

I remember as we got into the 2006 mid-terms, how the media began speculating on the number of seats that could flip (remember, the GOP had at that point, controlled the House since 1994). It was almost impossible but it happened - with way more seats than expected. Democrats needed 15 seats and got 31.

I haven't seen any numbers thrown out there for the House yet but I'll be looking for them. This go-around, Dems would need 32 to take control of the House with 218 seats (as a note, 2010 saw Ds lose 63 seats that got us in a big hole). The House is currently 246 R,186 D & 3 vacancies.

Yavin4

(35,441 posts)

9. Would be the first time he made a real estate deal that benefitted the people! n/t

Reply to Botany (Original post)

Mon Oct 10, 2016, 10:16 AM

Oct 2016

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