2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTrump Gains On Betting Sites Last Night Have Evaporated
For whatever reason, the gamblers last night thought that trump did ok during the debate. He gained maybe 3 or 4 pointa on Election Betting Odds (up to about 20% chance of winning the election) and around 1 point on the much better PredictWise (up to 14%). Nate Silver even made something of a big deal about this.
Well whatever high the bettors were feeling last night has given way to the taste of stale vomit and cheap tequila because Trump is back down to his all time lows. The assessment of Trumps performance did a complete 180 after the snap polls were released and he now appears to be in a worse position than he was 24 hours ago, in the eyes of the public. Oh well, maybe America will be in the mood for an extremely unstable facist in 2020.
dawg
(10,624 posts)they aren't as willing to toe their party line.
But I suspect the average person wagering on those sites considers themselves a "conservative". So, perhaps some of them liked what they heard from Trump last night, only to wake the next morning to a country that "just ain't having it".
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,002 posts)Buy on rumor, sell on news is the usual formulation. But if you are going the opposite way (selling short predicting a decline for example) it also works to sell on rumor and buy back on news.
Rumor had it that Trump would explode and meltdown at the second debate. So the bettors sold him down.
When he had a rough night but not a catastrophic meltdown, the bettors bought back on the news, which was not as bad as the rumor.
Now that all that has shaken out, the market is back to fundamentals and they are selling him down again.
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)He's spent all of October playing defense. First the tax debacle, and now the Nancy O'Dell audio. His apology rang hollow, and he'll stay on defense for at least another week. By then, it will be 3 weeks to the election.
The biggest problem Hillary had before was that her supporters were not as enthusiastic as Trump supporters. That's done a 180. Most Trump supporters I know are doing so with great reluctance (the courts, mainly). My M-I-L, who has voted Republican since Reagan, has stated she's leaving that line on the ballot blank. Meanwhile, Hillary's supporters (women in particular) are now enraged and determined to see Hillary win and Trump go down in flames.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Now at 88%, beating her previous high of 87% over the weekend
tblue37
(65,391 posts)his stalking her on stage, or what legal experts and more clear-minded pundits had to say about the chilling dictator like implications of his threat to jail her.