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Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 11:46 AM Oct 2016

Trump Gains On Betting Sites Last Night Have Evaporated

For whatever reason, the gamblers last night thought that trump did ok during the debate. He gained maybe 3 or 4 pointa on Election Betting Odds (up to about 20% chance of winning the election) and around 1 point on the much better PredictWise (up to 14%). Nate Silver even made something of a big deal about this.

Well whatever high the bettors were feeling last night has given way to the taste of stale vomit and cheap tequila because Trump is back down to his all time lows. The assessment of Trumps performance did a complete 180 after the snap polls were released and he now appears to be in a worse position than he was 24 hours ago, in the eyes of the public. Oh well, maybe America will be in the mood for an extremely unstable facist in 2020.

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Trump Gains On Betting Sites Last Night Have Evaporated (Original Post) Doctor Jack Oct 2016 OP
Betting markets are interesting, because people have money on the line so ... dawg Oct 2016 #1
A very old & powerful strategy: Buy on rumor, sell on news. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #2
Even a good debate performance wasn't going to help him. Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2016 #3
New All Time High for Clinton Doctor Jack Oct 2016 #4
Maybe they started reading and listening to what women had to say about tblue37 Oct 2016 #5

dawg

(10,624 posts)
1. Betting markets are interesting, because people have money on the line so ...
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 11:49 AM
Oct 2016

they aren't as willing to toe their party line.

But I suspect the average person wagering on those sites considers themselves a "conservative". So, perhaps some of them liked what they heard from Trump last night, only to wake the next morning to a country that "just ain't having it".

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,002 posts)
2. A very old & powerful strategy: Buy on rumor, sell on news.
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 11:58 AM
Oct 2016

Buy on rumor, sell on news is the usual formulation. But if you are going the opposite way (selling short predicting a decline for example) it also works to sell on rumor and buy back on news.


Rumor had it that Trump would explode and meltdown at the second debate. So the bettors sold him down.

When he had a rough night but not a catastrophic meltdown, the bettors bought back on the news, which was not as bad as the rumor.

Now that all that has shaken out, the market is back to fundamentals and they are selling him down again.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
3. Even a good debate performance wasn't going to help him.
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 12:18 PM
Oct 2016

He's spent all of October playing defense. First the tax debacle, and now the Nancy O'Dell audio. His apology rang hollow, and he'll stay on defense for at least another week. By then, it will be 3 weeks to the election.

The biggest problem Hillary had before was that her supporters were not as enthusiastic as Trump supporters. That's done a 180. Most Trump supporters I know are doing so with great reluctance (the courts, mainly). My M-I-L, who has voted Republican since Reagan, has stated she's leaving that line on the ballot blank. Meanwhile, Hillary's supporters (women in particular) are now enraged and determined to see Hillary win and Trump go down in flames.

tblue37

(65,391 posts)
5. Maybe they started reading and listening to what women had to say about
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 06:43 PM
Oct 2016

his stalking her on stage, or what legal experts and more clear-minded pundits had to say about the chilling dictator like implications of his threat to jail her.

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