Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Electoral Vote Forecast 10/17/2016 = 339-199
Trump has dropped below 200, below the Romney/Ryan threshold and heading for McCain/Palin territory."Hillary Clinton currently has a 96% chance of winning the presidency"
President 2016 Electoral Vote Forecast
Hillary Clinton 339
Donald Trump 199
Current states with odds of winning below 90% and above 40%
IA 46% - 6 electoral votes
OH 70% - 18
NV 72% - 6
NC 74% - 15
FL 87% - 29
President 2016 Electoral Vote Forecast
Hillary Clinton 339
Donald Trump 199
Current states with odds of winning below 90% and above 40%
IA 46% - 6 electoral votes
OH 70% - 18
NV 72% - 6
NC 74% - 15
FL 87% - 29
Still possible AZ and GA. Along with IA, that's another 33 electoral votes, or 372-166. Obama won 332-206 against Romney, 365-173 against McCain.
This from a week ago: The House is so much more in play this week than last, it is really remarkable. This was the swiftest shift in political fortunes I've witnessed, a concession of the Presidency race for all practical purposes. But a Clinton victory was going to happen anyway. What has really shifted is the overall picture for the Republican party. Now every candidate has to declare their position on Trump. For Republicans, there is no winning that inevitablity.
2016 House Race Ratings for October 4, 2016
Cook Report: Summary
Solid Seats: 202 Rep, 177 Dem
Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 7 Dem
Toss Up or Worse: 20 Rep, 4 Dem
Cook Report: Summary
Solid Seats: 202 Rep, 177 Dem
Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 7 Dem
Toss Up or Worse: 20 Rep, 4 Dem
October 6: Poll Update = Clinton 46%, Trump 39% (Morning Consult 9/30-10/2)
2016 National House Race
Asked of 1778 Likely Voters
Democratic candidate 46%
Republican candidate 37%
Don't Know/No Opinion 17%
2016 National House Race
Asked of 1778 Likely Voters
Democratic candidate 46%
Republican candidate 37%
Don't Know/No Opinion 17%
4 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8. .........
Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
