2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,003 posts) Mon Oct 17, 2016, 05:24 PM Oct 2016

538 up but Election consortium (-1%)

and Predictwise (from 91& to 90%) down slightly. wtf??

Unless the 2 sites down reacting to CNN polls?

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

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538 up but Election consortium (-1%) (Original Post) triron Oct 2016 OP

probably MFM008 Oct 2016 #1

EC only uses state polls, 538 factors in national polls as well. renegade000 Oct 2016 #2

Predictwise is back to 91% Doctor Jack Oct 2016 #3

Good Advice! n/t jamese777 Oct 2016 #4

1 point is noise. Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #7

Dec 1969 #

MFM008

(19,814 posts)

1. probably

Reply to triron (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 05:26 PM

Oct 2016

CNN was the first to drag down her numbers after the convention bump.

renegade000

(2,301 posts)

2. EC only uses state polls, 538 factors in national polls as well.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 05:28 PM

Oct 2016

I believe there were a couple bad ohio polls recently, but some pretty good national polls (as well as non-ohio states)?

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

3. Predictwise is back to 91%

Reply to triron (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 05:48 PM

Oct 2016

If you are obsessing over 1 point changes in the prediction markets you might be spending too much time focusing on the election. Go for a run or something

jamese777

(546 posts)

4. Good Advice! n/t

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 06:17 PM

Oct 2016

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)

7. 1 point is noise.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Mon Oct 17, 2016, 06:42 PM

Oct 2016

Look at the trend. And the trend is Hillary has never been in better shape to win.

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