She will also win with several points above 50 in CO, MI, MN, OR, VA, WI and several smaller states. It's just a matter of how close to 50% she reaches in the remaining big states: GA, FL, NC, OH, PA and TX.

She could certainly win with north of 50% of the US popular vote if turnout is huge in the solidly blue states.

Trumps ceiling is 40ish, with some little band of deviation thanks to turnout and deplorable mood as of 11/8, which we'll only know a couple days beforehand. +/- 2 is about it.

Stein is lost and irrelevant. The few remaining BorB fringe will boost her above the Greens' natural 0.3% fringe last time, but best case IMO is 1.3% instead

McMullin will make waves in UT but nowhere else. 1% tops.

That leaves at least 56% or so. The question then boils down to how many uninformed poseurs who try to sound wise about third options will add themselves to the diehard Libertarians, even though a few minutes' research or even just paying attention to his interviews reveals Johnson to be hopelessly out of his depth, woefully ignorant on government and policy, and advancing utterly disastrous plans in the few areas on which he can, briefly, appear cogent.

Libt's normally languish at the 1% range too. The media's endless yapping about likeability, Trump's driving away of sane RWers who can't yet vote D, and the current faddish hipster vogue for the party will drive that up quite a bit. But an additional 5% of the electorate means give or take 7 million new people choosing to throw away their vote on the shell of a politician who has no chance of achieving power and would be hopeless at wielding it given that chance. Are there so many protest vote patsies? I hope not.

As the actual vote is in front of people, 3rd parties are suddenly revealed as irrelevant, and since we only count votes, there is no refused/don't know percentage (yes yes yes I know about write-ins. A mere rounding error at best, though Sanders will get a few thousand more than is usual.) So time to see what I can pull from my crystal ball, admittedly Miss Cleo-level accuracy though that is.

Clinton 52.7
Trump 39.5
Johnson 5.6
Stein 1.2
McMullin 0.8
Noise 0.2

She will win a blowout. Johnson 7 Stein 3.

I just can't see Trump getting more than 37 or 38 at this point.

I predict Hillary by 4-5%, maybe even more. It's hard to tell will today's Media.

You could imagine a 51-46 result, but that leaves only 3 for third parties who have stayed much stronger than usual this late in a cycle so far.

Look at the 3td Party candidates on election day and choose someone who can actually win.

Support for the 3rd party candidates is shrinking, not growing. By the time the election happens they will be in low single digits. Combine that with the terrible numbers coming in for Trump and I think you get Sec. Clinton to 52 - 53%

That would be epic.