2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum‘..panic is beginning’: GOP strategist Steve Schmidt predicts Election Day disaster for Republicans
The panic is beginning: GOP strategist Steve Schmidt predicts Election Day disaster for RepublicansTRAVIS GETTYS
19 OCT 2016 AT 08:16 ET
Republican strategist Steve Schmidt sees a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton and possible Democratic majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House.
Schmidt told MSNBCs Morning Joe on Wednesday morning that Clinton was currently trending over 400 electoral votes, based on recent polling, and he said Republicans are freaking out over the real possibility of losing their majorities in both houses of Congress.
If this election was today, I think Republicans are down 25 seats (in the House), as of today with the trend line going in the wrong direction, Schmidt said.
He said the internal numbers of recent polls are not good for Republicans, and he predicted Democrats would retake the Senate and could possibly regain a majority in the House for the first time since 2009.
-snip-
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/the-panic-is-beginning-gop-strategist-steve-schmidt-predicts-election-day-disaster-for-republicans/
writes3000
(4,734 posts)Retaking the House would be such a just outcome.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)Cha
(297,240 posts)begging for it.
randome
(34,845 posts)I think he self-destructively wants to punish the world for 'allowing' him to be mortal and old and in decline.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
groundloop
(11,519 posts)oh hell, I don't have all day
liberalla
(9,248 posts)mortal, old and in decline... and now a laughingstock too... damn world!
randome
(34,845 posts)He wouldn't look so good in spandex, though. No one would be impressed.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
liberalla
(9,248 posts)volstork
(5,401 posts)Oh, if only trump were bald...!
Coolest Ranger
(2,034 posts)Lex Luthor is ten times smarter than Donald Trump ever was. Lex at least became President in the comics and on several TV shows Lex is smart don't disrespect the Lex.
randome
(34,845 posts)The guy who was sent to prison again and again.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
MineralMan
(146,311 posts)there's really no reason to bother going to the polls...
groundloop
(11,519 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)so, they need to make sure they stay indoors those days.
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)CTyankee
(63,912 posts)It made my day!
lillypaddle
(9,580 posts)And speaking of "justice," fuck you John McCain and all you other repug obstructionists! It would be clear sailing ahead.
Oh please please please let it happen!!!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The regular "normal" Republicans might not show since they think Trump is a lunatic and the Trumpkins might not show since they think the election is "rigged". Furthermore many of the RW loons that support Trump are too lazy to show up at the polls or too dumb to figure out where and when they are supposed to vote.
Looks like a massive epic blowout in the making. Lovely!
groundloop
(11,519 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)When he says the election is "rigged," he's inadvertently telling his own supporters they may as well not bother voting. Anti-Trumpers aren't affected; we don't believe anything he says.
Good move, Trump. Oh, and...checkmate.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)the internal polls are even worse than the public polls.
Awesome.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)When the Trump campaign says they are pulling out of VA while Clinton is going on offense in AZ, TX, and GA and spreading money downballot in MO, it's pretty evident the internal polling is trending wildly in her favor.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)about internals for both parties showing a bigger margin.
padfun
(1,786 posts)where as their internals are based on reality.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)The public pollsters (at least the good ones) have an incentive to be as accurate as they can get.... competition for sponsorships (though some, like Rasmussen, obviously cater to a particular audience).
The reason private polls are often more accurate is because they have access to proprietary data from the parties. The parties often have VERY detailed data which let's them construct a more accurate model of the electorate. Of course, they can be susceptible to wishful thinking as well, as in 2012 where internal pollsters on the GOP side were fooling themselves with unrealistic turnout models.
padfun
(1,786 posts)and I based my post on how they include obvious outlier polls such as the LA Times/USC or whatever poll that always had Trump with a 4-5 point lead, regardless on the other polls having Hillary up by 6-9. So by including this poll, it made the race much closer than it is/was.
However I have noticed that RCP has stopped including this poll in their listings lately.
tanyev
(42,559 posts)But I've got prosecco in the fridge just in case.
Ellen Forradalom
(16,160 posts)Win or lose, we'll all need a drink (real or imagined, hard or soft) when this is done.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Cakes488
(874 posts)trash from the streets and parks.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Love it!
bucolic_frolic
(43,166 posts)coming from a Republican
I'll believe it when I see it
and I sure hope we do
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)He is republican for sure, but has been increasingly disaffected since the end of the Bush presidency and the McCain campaign.
He could be wrong (though unlike 99% of other Rs, he is not complete driven by confirmation bias), but I am pretty confident that he isn't playing the expectations game, so to speak.
bucolic_frolic
(43,166 posts)I didn't want to give him too much credit
Just the other day I posted support for his ideas in another OP,
and I was lambasted that he was the worst #@($*%@(% GOP SOB
that ever advised anyone and I didn't know what I was talking about
So as usual .... people disagree, that's what makes horse races
calimary
(81,267 posts)that Trump "ran out of gas" after the first 20 or 30 minutes. And it stuck. And within a few minutes a slew of other pundits and talking heads were using that same metaphor.
He is a pretty straight shooter. He's not adverse to saying, flat-out, when his team is failing. He doesn't try to pivot or otherwise change the subject or run off at the mouth the way the Trump surrogates and other assorted "yeah, but HILLARY/yeah, but BILL CLINTON..." team members do. Steve Schmidt seems, at least, to have a grip on objective reality. Perhaps he realized he needed to move out of Bubble World after McCain/Palin went belly-up.
radical noodle
(8,000 posts)He was choking back tears just talking about how awful Trump is, not just for the Republicans but for our democracy. He has never supported Trump and now he's worried about the nation as a whole, about the tone of this election being so toxic.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Non-insane republicans can see that, too bad they let a fascist monster win their nomination.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)He IS a republican and wants them to win.
But, he is not like 99% of republicans who are driven by this modern day confirmation bias - conservative good, liberal bad.
He has been increasingly disaffected since the end of the Bush presidency and the Mccain/Palin campaign.
He was certainly not unhappy to comment or report on their big gains in the last two mid terms, and he clearly would have rathered Romney win.
But, he is was aghast at Palin and while he clearly respected McCain, he didn't try to pretty up his choice of Palin.
And, he has clearly been pained by and not tried to paint Trump as anything other than the POS he is this whole cycle.
radical noodle
(8,000 posts)Nicole Wallace is another who doesn't hold back about Trump. There are others, but those are the two I see most often.
I think country is more important than party to them. Nicole had a position in the McCain campaign but voted against McCain in 2008 because of Palin.
SunSeeker
(51,559 posts)Pretty amazing, and touching.
peggysue2
(10,829 posts)And was taken with Schmidt's emotional reaction to the massive damage The Donald is doing, not merely to the GOP but the whole democratic process. He spoke about the legacy we owe to our children, and then chillingly reminded the audience that fascism took root in Europe not because fascism was strong but because democracy was weak.
Reasonable, moderate Republicans actually do get it--Donald Trump threatens the very fabric of this country. Trump and his odious cohorts must be stopped.
radical noodle
(8,000 posts)that Trump's hate filled message won't be tolerated in this country. It's sad to realize that it took so long for many to start to see through him.
Hekate
(90,690 posts)So many of the talking heads are incapable of that any more, and what Steve S was saying was very important, needed to be said, and needed complete thoughts, not soundbites.
radical noodle
(8,000 posts)instead of simply chasing scandals and talking points.
Hekate
(90,690 posts)...on the history of our democracy, and the absolute necessity of the peaceful transition of power for the continuation of it.
Steve Schmidt is coming from an educated heart, rather that the "gut feeling" so touted by Trumpites.
VOX
(22,976 posts)He's a sincere guy, and reasonable. Maybe he should consider leaving the G.O.P. fold...I'd actually relish that!
stone space
(6,498 posts)Isn't it a little late to start panicking now?
pangaia
(24,324 posts)DON'T GET LAZY
If every Democrat gets 1/4 of another repub or undecided to vote Dem, we win big!!
mountain grammy
(26,621 posts)on November 28th!
BlueState
(642 posts)Trumpism should be made toxic. Reasonable conservatives should kick the tea baggers and trumpeters to he curb and begin the long slow process of marching back to sanity.
The political discussion has been brought down by right wing forces who have created a cottage industry in peddling conspiracy theory and stupidity. This has culminated in the ridiculous absurdity of Trump's candidacy. We can't allow any force to take us any lower than this.
leftyladyfrommo
(18,868 posts)We really need to get people in there that will do their job. Our country depends on it.
Blue Idaho
(5,049 posts)Do everything possible to make the Republican defeat as thunderous as possible. If you can, please donate. If you can't, call your local Democratic Office. Offer to give rides to the polls, knock on doors, make phone calls, or stuff envelopes. Every little bit helps!
arthritisR_US
(7,288 posts)C Moon
(12,213 posts)Of course you all are going to be booted. Nobody wants to take us back to the Bush year economy. We all want things to improve. Take off that clown mask and do some work!
Native
(5,942 posts)wryter2000
(46,045 posts)I doubt anything is going to make them stop filibustering in the Senate.
Still, this would be amazing.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)We have to make sure people get to the polls. When we show up in large numbers, we win.
Remember the down tickets!!
Response to DonViejo (Original post)
kestrel91316 This message was self-deleted by its author.
Amonester
(11,541 posts)Obstructionist Republicans are the main reason why America is not greater than it could be.
And the only reason Climate Change is still not taken seriously enough.
hibbing
(10,098 posts)So they will continue with their right wing nutjobiness.
Peace
niyad
(113,315 posts)MichDem10
(713 posts)She would have to win: FL, GA, NC, OH, IA, AZ, and TEXAS!!! Texas is the only way I see her getting over 400.
still_one
(92,191 posts)arthritisR_US
(7,288 posts)the RWNJs to get out and vote for the down ticket and the left gets complacent thinking they have it in the bag so they don't have to bother getting out to vote. It's time as these that we have to be sure to vote and actively get others on our side and get them to vote!
padfun
(1,786 posts)There wont be complacency and there never is during presidential elections. Especially in states where the legalization of marijuana is on the ballot. I am seeing the young ones here in California getting involved in the election like no other, and it isn't because of Trump vs Clinton. Now this isn't a good example since any Democrat would win this state regardless of ballot measures, but most that I am talking to really want to vote and don't care how big a lead Hillary has.
The problem comes in the mid-terms when the party's own GOTV is lacking. And we know what demographic groups fail to vote in those elections so we can rectify this with better GOTV during midterms.
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)brooklynite
(94,572 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Listen to fucking Meeeeker cry when Steve says the house may be close. Fuck her, fuck Joe, and fuck Willie Geist.
TimeToGo
(1,366 posts)As long as our side doesn't hear this to mean all is well.
keithbvadu2
(36,808 posts)Coolest Ranger
(2,034 posts)to God's ears. Please let that be true
LeftRant
(524 posts)in the debate. HAHA!
cstanleytech
(26,291 posts)and ram through tax reform to close all the loopholes the wealthy and varies corporations have been exploiting as well as appoint some extremely liberal SCOTUS judges followed by laws to make it so PACs cannot hide who funds them and must reveal the sources of cash in a clearly transparent manner.