2016 Postmortem

rzemanfl

(29,557 posts) Wed Oct 19, 2016, 10:21 AM Oct 2016

I think there is a factor the polls overlook.

Let's call it "The within earshot anomaly." Don't you think a number of women report supporting Trump because their Trump loving husband, significant other, father or some other right wing person can hear their answers?

5 replies

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I think there is a factor the polls overlook. (Original Post) rzemanfl Oct 2016 OP

Maybe a statistician Ardoewaan Oct 2016 #2

Yes I do believe their is a segment who will be saying one thing and doing another Cakes488 Oct 2016 #3

Yes. And one poll contained the interesting result that 45% of married women pnwmom Oct 2016 #4

Hillary will outperform the polls Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #5

Ardoewaan

(144 posts)

2. Maybe a statistician

Reply to rzemanfl (Original post)

Wed Oct 19, 2016, 10:34 AM

Oct 2016

can find a correlation between landline versus online to figure this out.

Cakes488

(874 posts)

3. Yes I do believe their is a segment who will be saying one thing and doing another

Reply to rzemanfl (Original post)

Wed Oct 19, 2016, 10:36 AM

Oct 2016

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)

4. Yes. And one poll contained the interesting result that 45% of married women

Reply to rzemanfl (Original post)

Wed Oct 19, 2016, 10:39 AM

Oct 2016

said they were voting for Hillary, but only 33% of married men said their wives were voting for Hillary.

Married men were also more likely to be supporting Trump than their wives thought, but the difference wasn't quite as large.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)

5. Hillary will outperform the polls

Reply to rzemanfl (Original post)

Wed Oct 19, 2016, 10:42 AM

Oct 2016

There are people supporting Trump who simply will not vote for him in the booth. And Trump is also telling his supporters it's a rigged system so he's depressing their votes. Hillary will outperform her numbers significantly. She will win by a minimum of 10 and by as much as 17. I could see a 53-36 popular vote, it's more likely than a 48-42 margin at this point.

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