Prediction: this last debate is going to be insane.
Last edited Thu Oct 20, 2016, 08:10 AM - Edit history (2)
I know, I'm not really going out on a limb here. But I mean considerably more insane than the first two.
Trump needs something big to happen to bring him back in the polls. A good showing where he convinces a few undecided voters to go over to his side won't do. If the debate is a non-event, even if he is declared the winner by the grading-on-a-curve press (if he manages to make it through the night without screaming the n-word, the press will say he "exceeded expectations"
, that still doesn't do enough to win the election.
Even more than his need to create an upwards polling trajectory, what Trump really needs is variance. Even variance with negative expectation would do. For example, say he has a stunt in mind that has a 20% chance of getting him ahead in the polls, and an 80% chance of causing him to lose another 10 points. This stunt would be rational on his part, because it gives him a 20% of winning, which is more than he would have if the polls don't move.
Now, for any normal presidential candidate, saying the crazy stuff Trump says daily would be a high-variance event. But for Trump, for example, saying that he would jail his opponent, or calling on Russia to mess with our electoral system, that kind of stuff is already built in to the expectations. Which means that to create variance, he needs to get even crazier. So I would not be surprised if he has, for example, a planned audience disruption in mind. Maybe they coach the Benghazi mother to storm the stage in anger. Maybe Paula Jones stands up wearing a t-shirt saying "Bill Clinton is a Rapist".
The good news is Hillary's team is sharp, and she will be prepared for anything. I'd bet she's already wargamed the scenario where that Benghazi mother jumps on stage. But buckle up, because it's going to he ugly.
UPDATE: So I was totally, completely wrong. Good thing predicting what Trump will do is not my day job. He tried to act "presidential", no weird stunts or surprises. And he got his ass kicked.
= new reply since forum marked as read
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
I thought it more closely resembled the Jerry Springer show (absent the chair-throwing) than the Lincoln-Douglas debates. 
