Election Model 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 320.2
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 339

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 327.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 331.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 343

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.99


Approaching the consensus 7 point lead in the polling averages.

For my next updates, i'm going to try and add some graphics and state by state projections. It's time.