his only option is to shove, even though he's holding the equivalent of 7-2 suited.


here's the real problem -- there's a reason he's in this desperate situation, and it's not the luck of the draw. he's gotten reasonable cards, but played them very, very poorly.

so why should we think he'll suddenly start playing any better?

and robbing the game ...

you can't beat the rake.

It's a tell, and it's why he was never goIng to win.

It's not like a great "river card" can pop up and give him the win.

He needs to get 10 million voters to change their minds. At this stage of the campaign, that ain't happening.


This is more like a football game than a poker game. Trump is down by 4 touchdowns and there's about 3 minutes left in the game. One lucky play won't do it for him.

just made a similar point ...

It's hard to imagine any conceivable scandal they could cook up against Hillary, but then again they've never been fettered by an overabundance of moral principles (unless maybe if you invert the meaning of "moral&quot . Other unforeseen occurrences could transpire to intervene -- her plane could crash, or perhaps it would be more effective if HIS plane chanced to crash and they promoted Pence to the candidacy. The KKK could switch its endorsement to Hillary at the last minute based on some manufactured secret conspiracy allegedly discovered "proving" she plans to implement genocide. (The horse could sing.)

On the other hand, he didn't mention the flagship gambler's evidence here: mega-bookie Paddy Power is already paying off on bets that were placed on Hillary.

Altho the obvious joke is that she has four queens and he has a dead-man's hand......

oops, on edit,,,4 kings, because Wild Bill had two pair with a queen kicker...

I love hold um, but it really is not the same.

Those odds are based on truly random draws.

Polling data is not random. It isn't absolute, but it based on professionally designed measurements conducted within the confines of established protocol.

Also, the betting markets are based on balancing the bets.

Nobody has ever won the WSOP with that hand!

barracks pot-limit game of straight draw poker. I drew one card to complete a jack-high straight flush. I raised the pot on the only other player left. He raised back. I emptied my wallet to call. We threw down. He had a king high straight flush.

I decided that if I couldn't bet everything I had on a straight flush and win every time, I shouldn't be playing poker. Haven't played since.

...subject to the cards which have already been dealt.

The small percentages which Trump is stuck with are dependent on the polls in a large number of swing state all being wrong in significant way - all in Trump's favor - at the same time.

Right now Hillary is winning in all of those states. If the election were to be held today and all of the polls averages on the 538 website are dead on, she would win 341.8 votes in the electoral college.

For Trump to win he would have to take all of the following states where Hillary's leads are the lowest: Arizona - 11 ECVotes) - lead 0.9% - Chance of Winning 55.6%, Iowa 6 ECV - lead 1.1%, CoW 56.7%, Ohio - 18 ECV - lead 1.9%, Cow 62.1%, North Carolina - 15 ECV - lead 3.1%, CoW 70.6%, and Florida - 29 ECV - lead 3.9%, CoW 74.2%.

There are other scenarios were different combination of states are possible, but they are much less likely. Nevada would be the next most likely state to fall to trump -6 ECV - lead 4.1%, CoW 73.8%. but after that would be Minnesota - 10 ECV - lead 7.3%, CoW 86.1%, so the chances of Minnesota falling to Trump are slim.

But remember, all of this is predicated on the condition that the election is held to day, and it won't be. The question is whether Hillary can keep or even expand her leads in Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada over the next 22 days until the election.