2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe best candidate of 2012 - North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp
November 20
Mitt Romney easily won North Dakota with 58 percent of the vote. But his margin of victory there over President Obama wasnt enough to boost Rep. Rick Berg (R) down the ballot. Heitkamp ran a remarkable 11 points ahead of the president to defeat Berg 50 percent to 49 percent.
While part of the disparity between the presidential race in North Dakota and the Senate contest had to do with Bergs flaws as a candidate, the strength of Heitkamps candidacy was a major reason Democrats held onto a seat that once looked poised to fall into Republican hands.
When Sen. Kent Conrad (D) announced his intention to retire in January 2011, it looked like there was another ripe pickup opportunity for the GOP in an increasingly Republican state. In 2010, Republican John Hoeven succeeded Byron Dorgan (D) in the Senate, and Earl Pomeroy (D) was dislodged from the states only House seat by Berg. Conrads retirement dramatically reshapes this race in the Republicans favor, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman said at the time.
Democrats didnt wave a white flag. Instead, they recruited Heitkamp, a former state attorney general and candidate for governor. While she began as a decided underdog against Berg, Heitkamp waged a savvy campaign in which she crafted a moderate profile.
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More:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/20/the-best-candidate-of-2012/
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)From Nate's site.
North Dakota
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS
Polling average 44.3 48.2 Berg +3.9
Adjusted polling average 45.2 48.1 Berg +2.9
State fundamentals 41.7 50.8 Berg +9.1
Now-cast 43.6 49.3 Berg +5.7
Projected vote share 47.2 52.8 Berg +5.6
Chance of winning 8% 92%
Nate got her and Jon Tester's reelection wrong.He had republicans winning both those seats.ND proved once again It was willing to split votes for president and Senator.
cntrfthrs
(252 posts)silver got it wrong because he used polls from the local press that were all skewed to the repubs. we here in ND also have the 'bubble' that 99.9% of repubs live in and all the large circulation newspapers are right-wing controlled. for those who really want to know what's happening in ND, read chet nodlands blog. northdecoder.com
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)this took courage and I congratulate her on her determination and courage in the face of lots of naysaying about her chances.
You go girl! I will cheer you from now on!
Cha
(297,655 posts)It seems she will be with the Cons on this important Environmental issue.
The Fix gives the Worst Candidate to Rick Perry.. I say Willard Romney is neck and neck!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/19/the-worst-candidate-of-2012/
Midwestern Democrat
(806 posts)weapon the Wisconsin GOP had in their arsenal.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Probably more moderate then I will ever be but it is North Dakota after all.
I thought Tim Kaine did quite well too. He ran ahead of Obama in VA and probably helped there. And Patrick Murphy. Totally defeated that idiot Allen West.