2016 Postmortem

MrScorpio

(73,631 posts) Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:35 AM Oct 2016

Just over 270 or way over 300...

Place your bets for the number of Electoral College votes that Hill will win

17 votes, 0 passes \| Time left: Unlimited
	Somewhere in the neighborhood of 270+
	1 (6%)
	WAAAAY over 300
	16 (94%)
	Other
	0 (0%)
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5 replies

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Just over 270 or way over 300... (Original Post) MrScorpio Oct 2016 OP

I've been predicting 350+ for months. MineralMan Oct 2016 #1

I have at about the same number, 348. rufus dog Oct 2016 #3

I'm superstitious... though my "gut" tells me it might (should) be a landslide, I'm just going hlthe2b Oct 2016 #2

This will be lot closer than alot of people are projecting citood Oct 2016 #4

Wrong question... should be over, or under 400 JCMach1 Oct 2016 #5

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)

1. I've been predicting 350+ for months.

Reply to MrScorpio (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:48 AM

Oct 2016

I stand by that prediction.

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)

3. I have at about the same number, 348.

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:26 AM

Oct 2016

To me it tends to snowball after that, AZ, GA, SC, then TX. Seems like it will be just under 350 or just under 400.

hlthe2b

(102,283 posts)

2. I'm superstitious... though my "gut" tells me it might (should) be a landslide, I'm just going

Reply to MrScorpio (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:56 AM

Oct 2016

to hold back and say she surely will get to 270, barring the entire world coming to an end (so-to-speak)

citood

(550 posts)

4. This will be lot closer than alot of people are projecting

Reply to MrScorpio (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:27 AM

Oct 2016

2012 was 332 vs 206.

I wouldn't characterize 332 as waaaaay over 300.

Do I think Hillary Clinton will outperform President Obama?

Well, I think there was a hidden 'neverRomney' movement, with evangelicals who would not vote for a Mormon. I don't think the 'neverTrump' republicans will outnumber the 'neverRomney' evangelicals...meaning I don't think Trump will underperform Romney. So its a question of whether or nor Hillary Clinton will get more votes than President Obama.

So now I look at the JPR group. There is disdain for them, to be sure...but they do exist. Some percentage (probably small, but measureable) of Democrats will stay home - 'neverClintons'.

For these reasons, I don't see it as being anything else but close.

JCMach1

(27,559 posts)

5. Wrong question... should be over, or under 400

Reply to MrScorpio (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 11:43 AM

Oct 2016

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