2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,006 posts) Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:06 PM Oct 2016

Iowa just turned pink again

on the now cast on 538. Why???
I don't see any new polls that weren't already listed. wtf is he doing?

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Iowa just turned pink again (Original Post) triron Oct 2016 OP

Dunno, RCP lists last Iowa poll was taken 10/3 thru 10/6 (Des Moines Register) emulatorloo Oct 2016 #1

Meh. Trump cannot win without PA. onehandle Oct 2016 #2

the 538 model uses a rolling weight for poll currency... getagrip_already Oct 2016 #4

Trump is winning just about every public Iowa poll, not that complicated. nt geek tragedy Oct 2016 #6

Exactly. book_worm Oct 2016 #8

not all of them... getagrip_already Oct 2016 #9

Now white (50-50) triron Oct 2016 #11

Oh well book_worm Oct 2016 #7

remember, there's a windowing effect 0rganism Oct 2016 #10

The number of early ballots returned so far are approx Dem 120K, GOP 80K sunonmars Oct 2016 #12

how does this compare with 2012? triron Oct 2016 #13

Iowa is not doing that well compared to 2012. LisaL Oct 2016 #15

Light blue again. triron Oct 2016 #14

Iowa is 95% white. It won't be surprising if it goes for Trump. n/t pnwmom Oct 2016 #16

Dec 1969 #

emulatorloo

(44,131 posts)

1. Dunno, RCP lists last Iowa poll was taken 10/3 thru 10/6 (Des Moines Register)

Reply to triron (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:11 PM

Oct 2016

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

2. Meh. Trump cannot win without PA.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:31 PM

Oct 2016

We got this here, no matter what.

getagrip_already

(14,764 posts)

4. the 538 model uses a rolling weight for poll currency...

Reply to triron (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:42 PM

Oct 2016

As polls get older, they fall in relative weight to more recent polls. So if stronger polls fell off the table, weaker polls since get more weight and move the probability even if no new polls show up.

AAnd fwiw, it isn't pink, it's white. Each side has a 50% chance of winning. It's a toss up.

Nate tries to read tea leaves using a system that is (ahem) a bit complex......

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

6. Trump is winning just about every public Iowa poll, not that complicated. nt

Reply to triron (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:45 PM

Oct 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

8. Exactly.

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:46 PM

Oct 2016

getagrip_already

(14,764 posts)

9. not all of them...

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:00 PM

Oct 2016

Most recent poll was in clintons favor...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/#now

(note, most recent not the top of list)

triron

(22,006 posts)

11. Now white (50-50)

Reply to getagrip_already (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:21 PM

Oct 2016

He puts times-picayune down below older poll and rated them leaning left 2 points

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

7. Oh well

Reply to triron (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:46 PM

Oct 2016

0rganism

(23,955 posts)

10. remember, there's a windowing effect

Reply to triron (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:11 PM

Oct 2016

seems very likely that an Iowa poll favorable to HRC just "expired", so we're left with the residual tRump-leaning polls
i wouldn't expect them to have a lot of polling yet that includes the events of the last week, maybe not even the last 2 weeks