2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCook Political Report Predicts Dems Will Win Up To Seven Senate Seats
By LAUREN FOX Published OCTOBER 25, 2016, 9:42 AM EDT
The Cook Political Report reported Tuesday morning that Democrats will take back their majority and win five to seven Senate seats in November.
Cook Political Report's Senate analyst Jennifer Duffy wrote that it looks like Republicans have finally reached the point where they can no longer simply run their own races. They are being drowned out by their presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Duffy wrote that ever since a tape surfaced of Trump discussing making unwanted sexual advances toward women, Republicans have been slowly sinking in polls across the country.
Democrats needed four seats to win control of the chamber assuming Hillary Clinton wins the White House (thanks to the vice president's tie-breaker) or five without her. "For much of the cycle, we have expected Democrats to score a net gain of between four and six seats. Since the release of the Access Hollywood tape, Senate Republicans have seen their fortunes dip, particularly in states like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania where Clinton has established a lead," Duffy wrote.
-snip-
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/cook-political-report-predicts-dems-will-win-up-to-seven-senate-seats
Wounded Bear
(58,726 posts)saltpoint
(50,986 posts)start over.
The Senate is packed with extraordinarily bad Republicans. Grassley. Toomey. Burr. Blunt. And on and on. And let's not even talk about their extraordinarily bad governors.
The GOP will have to hose down the stables and begin anew with candidates in the American mainstream. The Democratic ticket is out-flanking them all over the country now. And the GOP has been pissing in its own bucket since Nixon.
I guess we can't talk them out of driving off a cliff. But if they want to bounce back, they are going to have to piss off their base. It won't be any fun for Republican "leaders," but it does feel like their only way back.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)dKos is reliable, albeit they are not always keeping up with rends due to methodology, state-by-state polling. But check their map, 5 toss-ups because they are below 90% probability of a Dem win. So they are still at 50-50, have been for along while, but their probability of Dems majority is steadily increasing. Was 50% not long ago, now 66%. More recent state polls should reveal the blue trend nationally as Trump continues to bomb.