Without Florida, there is virtually no way Donald Trump can become President of the United States, and every day brings more evidence that Hillary Clinton is going to win a solid victory there. There is polling, early voting data, TV spending, and the size of the campaigns' respective ground games, and all of them point to a substantial Clinton win in Florida. Since the start of August, we have 33 polls in Florida. Clinton is leading in 24 of them, tied in 2, and behind in only 7. If we look at polls taken entirely in September and October, Clinton is leading in 15 and trailing in 6, and in half of the 6 polls where Trump led, it is by only 1 point.

Early mail-in ballots are another problem for Trump. In 2012, Republicans led in mail-ins at this point by 5 points. This year, they still lead, but their lead has been cut to 1.7 points, a shift of over 3 points in Clinton's favor. That is not a good sign for The Donald.

Voter registration is another problem area for Trump. Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, and since then, 100,000 more Democrats than Republicans have registered to vote. Furthermore, the Florida electorate is less white now than in 2012, with a 3-point shift in favor of nonwhite voters, and most of whom vote Democratic.

Yet another problem for Trump is the debt crisis in Puerto Rico. The upshot of troubled economic times on the island is that many Puerto Ricans are moving to the mainland, mostly around Orlando. Puerto Ricans are American citizens and as soon as they have established residency in Florida, they are eligible to register and vote there. The Clinton campaign is actively working to register as many of them as possible, knowing that Puerto Ricans are very strongly Democratic. Latino Decisions, a polling firm that specializes in polling Latinos, puts the likely vote among Puerto Ricans in Florida at 74% for Clinton and 17% for Trump. In the past, Florida's Latinos were dominated by Cuban-Americans, but that is no longer the case. Obama beat Romney among Latinos 60% to 39%, and Clinton is expected to do much better than Obama, in part due to the Puerto Ricans.