Voter preferences in the latest tracking poll, based on a four-day survey through Sunday night, remain the same as in a three-day result reported Sunday: 50 percent support Clinton, and 38 percent Trump, with 5 percent for Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Jill Stein.

Clinton's 12-point margin over Trump holds at 53 to 41 percent in a two-way matchup, indicating that Johnson and Stein aren't drawing disproportionately from either of the two major-party candidates.

jamese777

(546 posts)

3. 12 in their previous poll

Reply to triron (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 01:16 PM

Oct 2016

9 in the new, just released poll.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dead-heat-congress-clintons-advantage-poll/story?id=43047979

vadermike

(1,417 posts)

4. Great

Reply to triron (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 01:27 PM

Oct 2016

I wonder why it went down 3 tho?

vdogg

(1,384 posts)

5. 12 always seemed an outlier to me.

Reply to vadermike (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 02:23 PM

Oct 2016

9 is still too high. In reality this is probably a 5 or 6 point race right now. Tracking polls are very volatile. One really good (or really bad) day of polling can throw your numbers way off. Look at Obama's Gallup polling. Damn thing looks like an EKG.

jamese777

(546 posts)

6. Margin of Error

Reply to vadermike (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 02:25 PM

Oct 2016

The statistical margin of error for a poll of ABC's sample size is plus or minus 3.0. That means differences of 3 points in either direction are usually just random differences in who was polled that particular week.

triron

(22,023 posts)

8. Probably difference is just mostly due

Reply to jamese777 (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:01 PM

Oct 2016

to random variation in polled sample.

triron

(22,023 posts)

7. And went down 4 head

Reply to vadermike (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 02:30 PM

Oct 2016

to head. I wondered the same. Not sure how they do their poll.

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