This was not during a presidential year. Englar ran an outstanding clever campaign. Blanchard was lackluster. .plus Engler ran as a moderate. You are correct you can never assume as Blanchard did. Clintons campaign is not assuming.

a large amount. Problem is that others assumed the same thing and they didn't show up to vote either.

But yes, it is best to vote and vote early and then help others on election day (if you can) get to the polls.

MN had the highest turnout in the nation in 2012 with polls consistently showing a safe Obama lead outside the MOE. His actual margin of victory was almost 50% greater than the final RCP average.

The two "states" with the greatest INcrease in turnout from the far more interesting 2008 elections were both 40%+ margin of victory dark-colored mortal locks for opposite parties, Utah and DC.

The states where Obama outperformed his final polls by the greatest number of points in 2012 were all easy precalls with unassailable margins, one where he was a certain winner (HI) and two where he had zero chance (AK and MS).

There is an almost complete absence of correlation between turnout and margin of victory for Democratic states (-0.04) and yet a sort of possible negative correlation for Republican States (-0.34). In other words if there is a party which has to worry about complacency depressing turnout, it ain't ours.

take anything for granted until every vote has been cast and counted! Michelle Obama has reminded people in each of her speeches that only a few votes can make all the difference in a precinct, and the results of the entire election can turn on a small number of individual precincts. Vote, and GOTV in every way you can! All hands on deck, every shoulder to the wheel. One need only consider the alternative: