just doesn't pull in the ratings like they used to.

And who knows what's next about Trump? All the cards are not showing, yet, I'm sure.

He (apparently) leaked it himself (along with Liz Mair), to *someone* and they are waiting on that someone to drop it

that are out there, one in particular that will hurt trump with his base. i wasn't aware if wilson was the one that would leak it or if he just knew of something that would/could leak.

i'm not completely sure that he just isn't trolling trump supporters to cause them some anxiety, but i'm hopeful that he actually has something harmful on him and it'll come out before election day.

It was in a tweet a few days ago. Sure, he might be spouting hot air, but I believe him. Maybe I shouldn't.

…please note that HE'S not calling for a 1% drop -- he's saying that his analysis of the betting markets suggest they're thinking that. But he has, on numerous occasions, expressed his skepticism about the accuracy of such markets.

The betting markets are estimating. The direction of the move is obvious but not the scope. That is very typical when an unexpected variable shows.

Now the markets will hover until new relevant information surfaces, i.e. new batches of polls following Comey's statement.

Nate used the drop from 81% to 76% as a 1 point projected decline in Hillary's margin. If you want to look at it another way, it's like going from a 9.5 point favorite in an NFL game to 7.5 point favorite. Those would be the corresponding pointspreads for a money line (straight up) advantage of slightly above 4/1 (81%) to slightly above 3/1 (76%).

That is very similar to what sportsbooks would do when let's say a key player was suddenly injured and out of a game. A very good but not great quarterback is worth roughly 2 points on the line. So those sportsbooks would adjust the line 2 points, and then wait to see where the bettors take it. It's not much different than waiting for new polling to see where the voters are taking it.

because they're a reflection of all information, logical and illogical, about how the public thinks, which ultimately are what elections are also about.

of course the market in question has to be a large/fluid market - betfair (which mainly operates in europe) is the only such market now that intrade is no longer around.

Mother fucker ...