2016 Postmortem

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts) Sat Oct 29, 2016, 05:09 PM Oct 2016

My Prediction From About 6 Weeks Ago Is Eerily Accurate

I wrote this back in mid September and decided to take a look at it again today. I may be a wizard

Usually I use my magic crystals to look into the future but they are off being cleaned right now, so I will have to do this the old fashioned way...blood sacrifice.

Now, keep in mind that I was right about Clinton jumping in support in June, falling in early July, having a huge bounce in August, and that she would drop in late August, so my powers are pretty on point this year.

Here is what is going to happen. Trump's fuck ups late last week and into this week have stalled out any gains that he was making. I believe for the next week or so, we will see a slow but apparent drift back towards Hillary. Nothing dramatic, maybe a gain of 2ish points nationally. Essentially back to where she was 2 weeks ago or so. A little bit of breathing room but still uncomfortable.

The first debate will likely be a clusterfuck for Trump. He is too unprepared, too antsy to stand still for 90 minutes while people question his intelligence, and no one will be there to stop him from saying something stupid, including no teleprompter. Of course Trump's apologists will claim he won and looked "presidential" and will try to shift focus to when hillary cleared her throat 15 minutes and 42 second in or when she criticized trump for something but technically this one study says he is right and blah blah blah. Also people like Andrea Mitchell and Fox News will say that Trump did better than expected therefore he won but most people will say that Clinton won handily.

The polls a few days later will show her climbing to roughly 6.5 points ahead where she will hover around until mid-October. Then we will see a slow drop in her numbers to about 5ish points on average around election day. The media will talk about the "tightening race" in those final 2-3 weeks. On election day, she will win by 4.8-5.2 points. The talk after that will be "it was a lot closer than people thought" and "he came close even without support from the establishment", even though he will lose by quite a lot.

We will hear from the wingers that trump ran "an insurgent" campaign against the "establishment and the elite" and nearly won. Then after about 6 months, no one will really talk that much about Trump anymore. Most people, left and right, will want to forget about the national nightmare which was Trump's candidacy.

The end. The future is written. We cannot change it, we can only experience it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512429733

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

My Prediction From About 6 Weeks Ago Is Eerily Accurate (Original Post) Doctor Jack Oct 2016 OP

Well done. Dem2 Oct 2016 #1

i'll take any win for hillary at this point Tom Rivers Oct 2016 #2

I am thinking 7 to 8% popular vote margin min....she will trounce beachbumbob Oct 2016 #3

Wonderful! sofa king Oct 2016 #4

Honestly? I'll take it! ObamaKerryDem Oct 2016 #5

The problem with your prediction is you didn't factor in bigdarryl Oct 2016 #6

Well done!!! Madam45for2923 Oct 2016 #7

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

1. Well done.

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 05:26 PM

Oct 2016

I'll be happy if you're correct on Nov. 9th

Tom Rivers

(459 posts)

2. i'll take any win for hillary at this point

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 05:29 PM

Oct 2016

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

3. I am thinking 7 to 8% popular vote margin min....she will trounce

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 06:10 PM

Oct 2016

Trump in all the large democratic states by 12-15%....and be close in many red states of much smaller population...

sofa king

(10,857 posts)

4. Wonderful!

Reply to Doctor Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 06:33 PM

Oct 2016

My predictions have been laughably bad all year. But I did have this one, before all the others that were so astonishingly wrong:

This is going to be excruciating.

I'm saying this out loud, both for myself and a lot of you. American Presidential elections are bullshit. Total bullshit.

There is a particular cycle that runaway elections go through; I can give you three recent examples: Dole v Clinton ('96), McCain v Obama ('08), Romney v Obama ('12).

All three of these elections were blowouts, pretty much from beginning to end, although you can fairly say that McCain v Obama wasn't a blowout until they picked Palin as the running mate. In each case the Republican candidate was weak and fatally flawed, yet the Republican enjoyed the majority of the coverage--usually because they were saying stupid things.

All three of these elections went through a totally fucking infuriating cycle in which the press "pushed" the eventual loser closer, and closer, and closer to the leader and pretended it was a much closer race than it really was. All three had a fake-ass "surge" in August which was really just pollsters and news organizations trying to make the race interesting in the political black hole that is August.

Two out of the three races then "walked back" the polls in October, as pollsters began trying to establish a good call so that they could get hired in the next cycle. (It's pretty damned scary that some polls did not walk back Obama-Romney, and tried VERY hard to keep it within the margin of error. If they could have, the GOP would have tried to steal it like they did in '04.)

In the end, all three were solid victories. And, also infuriatingly, in the aftermath of all three were a series of sheepish articles in which political and journalist insiders confessed that they knew it was a blowout months in advance.

And this is where we are. We know this is a blowout, months in advance. If we all do our duty, check our registrations right now, and make sure not to let shitty employers and governments prevent us, we'll crush this election.

Soon, my anxiety won't let me believe my own words. But here it is, the whole story, long in advance: The Press and the Republican Party will make a good show of it because a close race sells subscriptions and protects the gerrymandered House. But even with a third party candidate in it--and I expect one any day now--they're still going to get their asses kicked.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1439008