2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum***Breaking F & M poll of Penn. HRC +11***
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/913809798323927231-f-m-poll-release-october-2016.pdftriron
(22,023 posts)that caused me to post this in triplicate. Won't try to explain. I'm not high.
anamnua
(1,124 posts)bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)t
vadermike
(1,417 posts)The transportation worker strike There is a GOP board running the area If that strike lasts until Election Day how do we get our voters to the polls in the city ? I am freaked out Please tell me I'm worrying for nothing ...
DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)There are just tons of precincts in Philadelphia. It's so dense and with each precincts being roughly 1000 voters, a precinct might only cover a few blocks. I'm sure rides will be available if needed, though.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)- 0% of Dems voting for Johnson and only 2% for Stein.
- 7% of Rs voting for Johnson, 3% for Stein
- Poll breaks down respondents by telephone vs respondents by online
- The race has been remarkably stable since July with only a dip in Aug, possibly due to the Olympics
- 94% of D and R certain to vote for Clinton or Trump respectively, 74% certain for Stein, 45% certain for Johnson. Looks like Trump's max pick up would be about 4 pts if the "still deciding" Johnson vote comes home.
- Clinton leads the leaners 27 to 19
- Interest in the election is the highest ever from 2004 to now at 75%
- McGinty up 43-33 over Toomey among RVs and 47-35 among LVs although the pollsters think this result might be an outlier. Toomey is only tied in NE Pennsylvania with the voters who know him best.
And they asked this:
24
Imagine that it is one week after the election, and [Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump](rotated) has won the
election and will be the next president of the United States. As an individual, how will you feel about
[Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump] being elected president? Please use a scale from minus 100, meaning
you would be extremely unhappy, to positive 100, meaning you would be extremely happy.
Mean Std. Dev.
Hillary Clinton 6.90 82.6
Donald Trump -21.15 85.0
The McGinty result might well be an outlier, but if campaign ad frequency is an indicator, it could be right because it seems every other ad in western PA is from Toomey or some group supporting him trashing McGinty. She doesn't have nearly the level of advertising on TV.