Cook: Electoral College Math Continues to Favor Clinton

Cook Political Report

There have been a lot of twists and turns to this campaign, but two things have remained constant. One, whenever the focus is on one candidate it benefits the other one. This is the byproduct of a race that is about personality instead of policy. And, it’s also what happens when you have two of the most disliked candidates in modern American history face off against each other. When we are talking about taxes, tapes and tweets, the polls move in Hillary Clinton’s favor. When emails dominate the headlines, Clinton’s lead shrinks.

The other constant has been the demographic divide. Trump has struggled to — and quite frankly was never interested in — building a broad coalition of voters. He didn’t just ignore the RNC’s 2013 GOP autopsy recommendations to appeal to communities of color, younger voters and women, he is actively running against them. He has doubled/tripled/quadrupled down on the theory that there are enough white, working class voters to get him over the finish line. For her part, Clinton has tried to assemble the Obama coalition of young and non-white voters. And, while it is unlikely that we’ll see African-American turnout hit 2012 levels, Clinton has been able to add to her coalition suburban and college educated white voters who are turned off by Trump’s behavior.

So, does the FBI announcement upend this pattern? First, even before FBI Director Comey’s bombshell, it was clear that the race was once again tightening. For much of October, the spotlight was on Trump — his poor debate performances, the Access Hollywood tape, and his contention that the election was “rigged.” But, for the last week, the spotlight moved back to Clinton: WikiLeaks, the Clinton foundation, and the government report on premium hikes for Obamacare. As a result, Republican voters — who were on the sidelines — came back to the fold. We are seeing this at both the national and state level.

The question now is if the next week is consumed entirely by this story. There are conflicting reports about whether the process of evaluating the emails found on Anthony Wiener’s computer will take weeks or may actually be able to be completed pre-election. A daily update on their status is not something that the Clinton campaign can afford. For their part, the Clinton campaign seems to be taking a two-tiered approach for the last days of the campaign. They are attacking both Comey and the process as unfair, while also trying to keep the focus on Trump’s weaknesses. The first approach seems designed to keep their base engaged (and motivated), while the second is all about keeping the college-educated Republican leaning voters on her side. Today, they unleashed a new ad that takes direct aim at Trump’s “fitness” to be president with an ad that features Trump’s statements about nuclear weapons and war and features the little girl (who is now a grown-up of course), who starred in the infamous 1964 “Daisy” ad.