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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTrump supporters should be very worried
Trumps most likely path to victory would be through Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and either Colorado or New Hampshire ― states he has the best chances of flipping. If he loses Florida, theres not much that will save him. In that case, hed need Nevada, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and New Hampshire, plus both Wisconsin and Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Trump only has a more than 10 percent chance of winning two of those states: Ohio and Nevada. Unless all the polls are wrong, theres not much of a possibility that hell pull an upset.
That still leaves the matter of the national polls closing in, though. National polls do provide a good indicator of the state of the race, even though the election happens in the individual states. And since state polls are generally slower to come in than national polls, its possible that we could see some narrowing in the state polls as well.
But if the state polls do close in to reflect the national poll movement, it probably wont be enough to swing the race. Over the past week, Trump has gained about 1 percent in the HuffPost Pollster average, putting him just over 6 points behind Clinton in a head-to-head matchup and about 5.6 points behind her when third-party candidates are included. Even if he continues to gain, hell be behind on Election Day.
Trump only has a more than 10 percent chance of winning two of those states: Ohio and Nevada. Unless all the polls are wrong, theres not much of a possibility that hell pull an upset.
That still leaves the matter of the national polls closing in, though. National polls do provide a good indicator of the state of the race, even though the election happens in the individual states. And since state polls are generally slower to come in than national polls, its possible that we could see some narrowing in the state polls as well.
But if the state polls do close in to reflect the national poll movement, it probably wont be enough to swing the race. Over the past week, Trump has gained about 1 percent in the HuffPost Pollster average, putting him just over 6 points behind Clinton in a head-to-head matchup and about 5.6 points behind her when third-party candidates are included. Even if he continues to gain, hell be behind on Election Day.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/poll-donald-trump-ahead_us_58190572e4b07c97c1c50525?2aqz3015golwbqpvi
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Trump supporters should be very worried (Original Post)
Doctor Jack
Nov 2016
OP
Not really. Their world won't be turned upside down if Hillary wins unless they want it to be.
stone space
Nov 2016
#2
Skittles
(153,180 posts)1. they should be worried at the very idea of a Prez Donald
stone space
(6,498 posts)2. Not really. Their world won't be turned upside down if Hillary wins unless they want it to be.
The same cannot be said of our world should Trump manage to eek our a victory.
SammyWinstonJack
(44,130 posts)5. So true.
underpants
(182,868 posts)3. The math makes it hard for any Republican to win a national election
There is the math. It's really difficult for a Republican to win a national election. If you take the 2012 results -- Dem 332 Republican 206 and subtract 7 states from the Dem (NV CO NM Iowa VA Ohio and Florida) they still start with 246. They only need to pick up 24 votes to win. 206 is the Repub starting point. In order to get to 270 they'd have to almost run the table on those 7 states needing 54 votes to win. Those 7 states total 86 E Votes.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)4. Donnie has no ground operations in Colorado.
How the HELL can he win the state?
He can't!