Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 08:37 PM Nov 2016

Turning Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website BLUE!

With the newest polls Silver has turned Florida, North Carolina and Nevada blue for Hillary. In addition for the first time since Comey sent his first letter to Congress, Hillary chances of winning the election (currently 69.6%) has been tracking upward today.

In addition, the website has raised the chances of Democrats winning the Senate from 45% to the current 50.1% level. It doesn't get closer than that.

Polls are all obviously trending Blue hear at the end.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Turning Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website BLUE! (Original Post) CajunBlazer Nov 2016 OP
yay! vadermike Nov 2016 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author NightWatcher Nov 2016 #4
This is a highly divided country.... CajunBlazer Nov 2016 #5
This message was self-deleted by its author NightWatcher Nov 2016 #9
Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2016 #8

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
2. yay!
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 08:42 PM
Nov 2016

GOTV !!! We wont have aot of time to get judges thru.. Kaine's seat is up at end of 17.. lets get er done quick!!!! and get as much good stuff passed as we can!!! we need to fix Obamacare too!

Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
5. This is a highly divided country....
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 09:55 PM
Nov 2016

At two points in the campaign the FiveThirtyEight site had Hillary's chances of winning the Presidency at 87% or higher. But then in each case the polls were not as kind.

Neither Democratic nor Republican Presidential candidates can count on a landslide victory in this country. Over the years polling has become significantly more accurate, but it is still as much art as science. If we filled a vessel with a thousand green marbles and a thousand red marbles and mixed them together thoroughly, it is still theoretically possible to blindly reach into that vessel to pull out 100 marbles and have them be all red, or all green. It is certanly not likely, but it is possible. In addition, there are factors which polls cannot measure and those factors can move the results in a close election one way or another.

So if anyone presumes to tell you that your candidate has a 99% chance of winning - don't listen to that idiot.

Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #5)

Response to NightWatcher (Reply #4)

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Turning Nate Silver's Fiv...