2016 Postmortem

titaniumsalute

(4,742 posts) Mon Nov 7, 2016, 11:51 PM Nov 2016

538 Just Went To 72% Polls Plus Forecast with 300 EVs

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast#plus

19 replies

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Highlight:

538 Just Went To 72% Polls Plus Forecast with 300 EVs (Original Post) titaniumsalute Nov 2016 OP

Still about 20 points behind everyone else Doctor Jack Nov 2016 #1

What is that? 7 points in 12 hours? Fahrenthold451 Nov 2016 #2

More movement that we have really seen all year Doctor Jack Nov 2016 #3

lol. you should see RCP ec count. HRC 272 - Trump 266 clutterbox1830 Nov 2016 #10

538 Just Went To 72% Polls Plus Forecast with 300 EVs. LenaBaby61 Nov 2016 #5

Up again and could be the last update: Hillary 72% Doctor Jack Nov 2016 #18

Dec 1969 #

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

1. Still about 20 points behind everyone else

Reply to titaniumsalute (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 11:52 PM

Nov 2016

Not sure if the polls are really that different or if 538 is trying to salvage their reputation

Fahrenthold451

(436 posts)

2. What is that? 7 points in 12 hours?

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 11:55 PM

Nov 2016

Seems like it's a move to salvage rep.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

3. More movement that we have really seen all year

Reply to Fahrenthold451 (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 11:56 PM

Nov 2016

What are the odds?

clutterbox1830

(395 posts)

10. lol. you should see RCP ec count. HRC 272 - Trump 266

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 8, 2016, 12:08 AM

Nov 2016

To be honest, I'm not sure why all this matter except to us political junkies.
538 uses his own formula/simulations. I've no problem with a pessimistic view on the election.
It makes me GOTV harder on election day.

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)

5. 538 Just Went To 72% Polls Plus Forecast with 300 EVs.

Reply to titaniumsalute (Original post)

Tue Nov 8, 2016, 12:00 AM

Nov 2016

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

18. Up again and could be the last update: Hillary 72%

Reply to titaniumsalute (Original post)

Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:00 AM

Nov 2016

Up nearly 10 points in 1 day. Maybe they finally got the memo?

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