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clutterbox1830

(395 posts)
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 12:59 AM Nov 2016

RCP model HRC 272 - Trump 266. No this won't happen. Please read before criticize me.

Before people start bashing me on why I would post this, I just wanted to display RCP EC model as of ~12 am EST on 11/8 (election day). I wanted to see if their state model adjusted after election day. I have seen them adjust their number 4 years ago, but didn't record their numbers last time. I wanted at least mark them down this time and prove that they adjusted their numbers to make their site seem more accurate.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

STATE CLINTON - TRUMP RCP AVERAGE

Florida (29): 46.4 - 46.6 Trump +0.2
Maine CD2 (1): 41.0 - 41.5 Trump +0.5
New Hampshire (4): 43.3 - 42.7 Clinton +0.6
North Carolina (15): 45.4 - 46.8 Trump +1.4
Nevada (6): 45.0 - 46.5 Trump +1.5
Pennsylvania (20): 46.2 - 44.3 Clinton +1.9
Colorado (9): 43.3 - 40.4 Clinton +2.9
Iowa (6): 41.3 - 44.3 Trump +3.0
Ohio (18): 42.3 - 45.8 Trump +3.5
New Mexico (5): 45.5 - 42.0 Clinton +3.5
Arizona (11): 42.3 - 46.3 Trump +4.0
Maine (2): 44.0 - 39.5 Clinton +4.5
Georgia (16): 43.8 - 48.4 Trump +4.6
Michigan (16): 44.7 - 40.0 Clinton +4.7
Virginia (13): 47.3 - 42.3 Clinton +5.0
Wisconsin (10): 46.8 - 40.3 Clinton +6.5

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RCP model HRC 272 - Trump 266. No this won't happen. Please read before criticize me. (Original Post) clutterbox1830 Nov 2016 OP
Looks like a fucking victory to me AllTooEasy Nov 2016 #1
Good thinking. I would not surprise me if they fuck with the numbers. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #2
flip parties to the other one on both NH and NV Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #3
*Update*RCP "adjusted" the model again as of 12pm on 11/8. Same EC count but more state tightening. clutterbox1830 Nov 2016 #4
Do you know what they'll call Hillary if she squeaks by with 272 EV? Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2016 #5
Agree. clutterbox1830 Nov 2016 #6
My guess is they'll relent if the alternative is Trump Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2016 #7

clutterbox1830

(395 posts)
4. *Update*RCP "adjusted" the model again as of 12pm on 11/8. Same EC count but more state tightening.
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 12:47 PM
Nov 2016

HRC 272 - Trump 266

STATE CLINTON - TRUMP RCP AVERAGE (adjusted since original RCP model)

Florida (29): 46.4 - 46.6 Trump +0.2
Maine CD2 (1): 41.0 - 41.5 Trump +0.5
New Hampshire (4): 43.3 - 42.7 Clinton +0.6
Nevada (6): 45.0 - 45.8 Trump +0.8 (+ Clinton 0.7)
North Carolina (15): 45.5 - 46.5 Trump +1.0 (+ Clinton 0.4)
Pennsylvania (20): 46.2 - 44.3 Clinton +1.9
Colorado (9): 43.3 - 40.4 Clinton +2.9
Iowa (6): 41.3 - 44.3 Trump +3.0
Michigan (16): 45.4 - 42.0 Clinton +3.4 (+ Trump 1.3)
Ohio (18): 42.3 - 45.8 Trump +3.5
Arizona (11): 42.3 - 46.3 Trump +4.0
Maine (2): 44.0 - 39.5 Clinton +4.5
Georgia (16): 43.8 - 48.4 Trump +4.6
Virginia (13): 47.3 - 42.3 Clinton +5.0
New Mexico (5): 45.3 - 40.3 Clinton +3.5 (+Clinton 1.5)
Wisconsin (10): 46.8 - 40.3 Clinton +6.5
Oregon (7) 44.0 36.0 Clinton +8.0

clutterbox1830

(395 posts)
6. Agree.
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:12 PM
Nov 2016

Although not to scare you there have been at least 2 EC Democratic representatives in WA that have announce that they will not vote for Hillary. It is quite alarming.

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