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NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts)
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:39 PM Nov 2016

** Breaking: Realtime exit data shows Hillary leading in every swing state**

Just updated votecastr at slate.com shows Secretary Clinton now leads in every battleground:

Colorado
New Hampshire
Florida
Iowa!
Ohio!
Pennsylvania!
Wisconsin!
Nevada!

GOTV for sure but all ours so far!

79 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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** Breaking: Realtime exit data shows Hillary leading in every swing state** (Original Post) NewsCenter28 Nov 2016 OP
Just keep swimming...just keep swimming...just keep swimming Tommy_Carcetti Nov 2016 #1
As A Runner-I Say One Step at a Time Stallion Nov 2016 #11
I always say lakercub Nov 2016 #67
That's funny! Maraya1969 Nov 2016 #79
Thanks!! Lifelong Protester Nov 2016 #2
10.30 AM JennyMominFL Nov 2016 #3
They just updated seconds ago NewsCenter28 Nov 2016 #8
Is that actually exit or just interpreted early voting? whatthehey Nov 2016 #4
Exit polls are far too frequently wrong. To hang any trust on them is foolish. Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #5
That's what I was thinking. DuckBurp Nov 2016 #40
vote or registration? imaginary girl Nov 2016 #7
Both-n/t NewsCenter28 Nov 2016 #9
Link? molova Nov 2016 #12
Harvey Keitel from Pulp Fiction Voice: Let's not start doing you know what just yet smorkingapple Nov 2016 #13
it isn't exit poll in classic sense.... getagrip_already Nov 2016 #16
This is not an exit poll, no. Ghost Dog Nov 2016 #43
They're just guessing, basically. I'll wait for tonight emulatorloo Nov 2016 #46
more than a guess, but less than vote counts..... getagrip_already Nov 2016 #50
This message was self-deleted by its author NightWatcher Nov 2016 #17
Remember Kerry and 2004 LostinRed Nov 2016 #21
Http://www.slate.com is the link and by all means GOTV!-n/t NewsCenter28 Nov 2016 #23
Oh yeah, I vividly remember. progressoid Nov 2016 #36
Remember 2004 waldnorm Nov 2016 #22
Vote! Iliyah Nov 2016 #26
The only one I don't like is Nevada.... Funtatlaguy Nov 2016 #28
Dive into the recent post by Votecastr and you will see that they are a little dubious of their own Fahrenthold451 Nov 2016 #39
They show Clinton +7 Clark County, grantcart Nov 2016 #41
OMG Where have you BEEN!?!?! berni_mccoy Nov 2016 #52
Ralston vadermike Nov 2016 #31
I know GOTV is working overtime in NH. Vinca Nov 2016 #33
Awesome! budkin Nov 2016 #34
If anyone has free time and already voted, please phonebank. Beacool Nov 2016 #35
Sorry, I find exit polling highly dubious. beaglelover Nov 2016 #37
Unfortunately it's not what the exit respondents say Loubee Nov 2016 #42
they dont ask questions... getagrip_already Nov 2016 #45
See here: emulatorloo Nov 2016 #47
Good news Fertile Ground Nov 2016 #48
North Carolina? n/t Silent3 Nov 2016 #53
They regret not doing NC NewsCenter28 Nov 2016 #58
It ain't over until the last person votes. Agnosticsherbet Nov 2016 #56
Didn't they always used to say that Republicans vote early, BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #59
Good news bucolic_frolic Nov 2016 #63
The highlight of the year for me was Brianna Keilar versus Michael Cohen: "Polls. All of them." randome Nov 2016 #65
Not sure about the method, but it's better to be ahead in all these states! Sancho Nov 2016 #71
Good; but I never fully trust exit polls after a few British disappointments LeftishBrit Nov 2016 #72
where's north carolina?! barbtries Nov 2016 #73
She's already hit Obama's 2012 score in Florida. I love it. TrollBuster9090 Nov 2016 #78
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NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts)
8. They just updated seconds ago
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:42 PM
Nov 2016

Try hitting refresh. For example, the FL vote totals were at 2 million. Now 3 million each.

DuckBurp

(302 posts)
40. That's what I was thinking.
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:44 PM
Nov 2016

I remember the 2004 presidential election. I still think Rove manipulated the votes.

imaginary girl

(861 posts)
7. vote or registration?
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:42 PM
Nov 2016

Hi, do you know if the votecastr percentages are based on actual vote or percentages of registered voters?

getagrip_already

(14,764 posts)
16. it isn't exit poll in classic sense....
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:48 PM
Nov 2016

They aren't asking people who they voted for. They are counting noses.

Once they have a count of voters and where they are, they project who those voters likely support.

It isn't how they actually voted. They are saying if you are a an older white maile living on ronald reagon avenue, in zip code 12345, then you are likely a trump voter.

They them extrapolate that across the state and come up with a % that likely support each candidate.

It is crude. They can't capture woman r's voting for clinton, or male d's voting for trump.

For example, they have stein in NV where stein isnt even on the ballot.

getagrip_already

(14,764 posts)
50. more than a guess, but less than vote counts.....
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 04:00 PM
Nov 2016

it mirrors what political war rooms do. they see how many voters have voted in each county, and target the ones that are under voting but are more likely to vote for your candidate.

you can extrapolate some useful info, but it isn't perfect. If you can marry it to real exit poll data, which may tell you woman are breaking your way, you can target woman in areas where there are a lot of friendly voters.

Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

waldnorm

(165 posts)
22. Remember 2004
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:08 PM
Nov 2016

Looks encouraging but remember the jubilation when the early exit data was reported. Wait until evening's done at least.

Funtatlaguy

(10,879 posts)
28. The only one I don't like is Nevada....
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:18 PM
Nov 2016

very small lead....worries me about Senate race....
Ralston had me convinced this morning that Nevada would be a Dem rout.

Fahrenthold451

(436 posts)
39. Dive into the recent post by Votecastr and you will see that they are a little dubious of their own
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:32 PM
Nov 2016

data on NV. They also had Stein on the ballot there. She aint.

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
31. Ralston
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:20 PM
Nov 2016

Knows what he talking about this vote thing isn't an exact science these aren't actual voters so we don't really know how they are voting just a guesstimate Also doesn't take into account Rs voting for Hillary As well

Vinca

(50,278 posts)
33. I know GOTV is working overtime in NH.
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:22 PM
Nov 2016

Yesterday we had 2 visits and another fellow stopped by about an hour ago . . . and I live in the boonies.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
35. If anyone has free time and already voted, please phonebank.
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 03:24 PM
Nov 2016

In NJ we are mainly calling PA, but there are some calls to OH and FL. In my area there were car pools on Sat., Sun. and Mon. to PA. This morning a bus left to canvass in Philly and its suburbs.

We can't relax until all votes are counted!!!

 

BlueProgressive

(229 posts)
59. Didn't they always used to say that Republicans vote early,
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 04:10 PM
Nov 2016

and Democrats tend to roll in after 5:00 pm when the work-day was over?

Times have changed some, but not entirely. If Democratic turnout has been higher than Republican turnout this early in the day, it could spell big trouble for the GOP up and down-ballot.

bucolic_frolic

(43,182 posts)
63. Good news
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 04:35 PM
Nov 2016

Hope it continues, and the big numbers give me hope

I'll believe a wave or watershed election when I see it, but until
then I'll say that watersheds occur when the other party doesn't
vote or the country is in agreement. I don't think either are happening
here. It will be close enough, 2-4% most likely.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
65. The highlight of the year for me was Brianna Keilar versus Michael Cohen: "Polls. All of them."
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 04:39 PM
Nov 2016


I can just hear Cohen asking the same stupid question about these exit polls and getting the same answer.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]

Sancho

(9,070 posts)
71. Not sure about the method, but it's better to be ahead in all these states!
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 04:57 PM
Nov 2016

Let's hope that Votecastr is accurate.

TrollBuster9090

(5,954 posts)
78. She's already hit Obama's 2012 score in Florida. I love it.
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 05:25 PM
Nov 2016

No more bulls#!t recounting dangling chad in Florida until February.

I'm also pretty pleased with Wisconsin! So much for trying to knock down the blue firewall.

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