2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum** Breaking: Realtime exit data shows Hillary leading in every swing state**
Just updated votecastr at slate.com shows Secretary Clinton now leads in every battleground:
Colorado
New Hampshire
Florida
Iowa!
Ohio!
Pennsylvania!
Wisconsin!
Nevada!
GOTV for sure but all ours so far!
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)Stallion
(6,476 posts)lakercub
(659 posts)why am I doing this
why am I doing this
Maybe that's why I can't get a decent PR.
Maraya1969
(22,483 posts)Lifelong Protester
(8,421 posts)JennyMominFL
(218 posts)I can only see data from 10.30 AM. Is that right?
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Try hitting refresh. For example, the FL vote totals were at 2 million. Now 3 million each.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)DuckBurp
(302 posts)I remember the 2004 presidential election. I still think Rove manipulated the votes.
imaginary girl
(861 posts)Hi, do you know if the votecastr percentages are based on actual vote or percentages of registered voters?
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)molova
(543 posts)?
smorkingapple
(827 posts)getagrip_already
(14,764 posts)They aren't asking people who they voted for. They are counting noses.
Once they have a count of voters and where they are, they project who those voters likely support.
It isn't how they actually voted. They are saying if you are a an older white maile living on ronald reagon avenue, in zip code 12345, then you are likely a trump voter.
They them extrapolate that across the state and come up with a % that likely support each candidate.
It is crude. They can't capture woman r's voting for clinton, or male d's voting for trump.
For example, they have stein in NV where stein isnt even on the ballot.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)getagrip_already
(14,764 posts)it mirrors what political war rooms do. they see how many voters have voted in each county, and target the ones that are under voting but are more likely to vote for your candidate.
you can extrapolate some useful info, but it isn't perfect. If you can marry it to real exit poll data, which may tell you woman are breaking your way, you can target woman in areas where there are a lot of friendly voters.
Response to NewsCenter28 (Original post)
NightWatcher This message was self-deleted by its author.
LostinRed
(840 posts)Exit polls showed him ahead. Go vote!
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)progressoid
(49,991 posts)waldnorm
(165 posts)Looks encouraging but remember the jubilation when the early exit data was reported. Wait until evening's done at least.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Funtatlaguy
(10,879 posts)very small lead....worries me about Senate race....
Ralston had me convinced this morning that Nevada would be a Dem rout.
Fahrenthold451
(436 posts)data on NV. They also had Stein on the ballot there. She aint.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)vadermike
(1,415 posts)Knows what he talking about this vote thing isn't an exact science these aren't actual voters so we don't really know how they are voting just a guesstimate Also doesn't take into account Rs voting for Hillary As well
Vinca
(50,278 posts)Yesterday we had 2 visits and another fellow stopped by about an hour ago . . . and I live in the boonies.
budkin
(6,703 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)In NJ we are mainly calling PA, but there are some calls to OH and FL. In my area there were car pools on Sat., Sun. and Mon. to PA. This morning a bus left to canvass in Philly and its suburbs.
We can't relax until all votes are counted!!!
beaglelover
(3,486 posts)Loubee
(165 posts)It's who ends up "counting" the votes.
getagrip_already
(14,764 posts)they are only counting noses.
emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)Fertile Ground
(2 posts)Silent3
(15,234 posts)NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Apologized for that lol.
FL appears to be GONE and nevertrump land!
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)BlueProgressive
(229 posts)and Democrats tend to roll in after 5:00 pm when the work-day was over?
Times have changed some, but not entirely. If Democratic turnout has been higher than Republican turnout this early in the day, it could spell big trouble for the GOP up and down-ballot.
bucolic_frolic
(43,182 posts)Hope it continues, and the big numbers give me hope
I'll believe a wave or watershed election when I see it, but until
then I'll say that watersheds occur when the other party doesn't
vote or the country is in agreement. I don't think either are happening
here. It will be close enough, 2-4% most likely.
randome
(34,845 posts)I can just hear Cohen asking the same stupid question about these exit polls and getting the same answer.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]
Sancho
(9,070 posts)Let's hope that Votecastr is accurate.
LeftishBrit
(41,208 posts)barbtries
(28,799 posts)where i live?!
TrollBuster9090
(5,954 posts)No more bulls#!t recounting dangling chad in Florida until February.
I'm also pretty pleased with Wisconsin! So much for trying to knock down the blue firewall.