Why VoteCastr’s Early Vote Numbers Look Different Than the Ones on Other Sites




As some astute readers have noticed, VoteCastr's estimated early vote totals do not add up to the totals released publicly by a number of states. In Nevada, the secretary of state has reported that 770,149 total ballots were cast early while VoteCastr has tracked only 593,893. In Colorado, the secretary of state had counted 1,852,029 votes as of Monday while VoteCastr has tracked 1,656,947. And in Florida, the secretary of state has reported a total of 6,511,712 early and mail-in ballots compared to 3,680,611 for VoteCastr.

What accounts for the difference? VoteCastr is able to apply its micro targeting model when it knows the identities of early voters. (I explained the ins and outs of that model here.) Because of the way early votes are reported—essentially, it’s a piecemeal process that happens at the county level—VoteCastr does not have specific voter identity information for every single early ballot. As a consequence, VoteCastr’s top-line numbers are going to be smaller than the ones you might find elsewhere. But, VoteCastr argues, its data are more robust.

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What about Jon Ralston, the long-time Nevada journalist, who effectively called his home state for Clinton last week after getting a look at partial early voting numbers? Ralston has more intimate knowledge of Nevada than pretty much any journalist working today, and his predictions very well may come true. One major difference between Ralston’s approach and VoteCastr’s is that he is making an explicit prediction about what will happen, while VoteCastr is focused on the present: not who will win, but who is leading now. As of 2:10 p.m EST, VoteCastr has Hillary Clinton leading by 10,000 votes.