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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe latest VoteCastr data from 8 swing states Updated: 3:48 p.m. E.T.
Background on this data
For past elections, media organizations agreed to hold back any Election Day voting data because they thought the information trickling in throughout the day would unduly affect voters.
Through a partnership with the data firm VoteCastr and Slate, VICE News breaks that rule and for the first time will bring you voting turnout data from the battleground states in real time. VoteCastrs models and methods are based on the same techniques that presidential campaigns use. Its founders were part of previous presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and George W. Bush. What we see is likely what the war rooms inside the presidential campaigns are seeing.
Florida
83.9 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 45 percent
Colorado:
80.3 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 43 percent
Iowa:
66.5 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 45 percent
Trump: 46 percent
Wisconsin:
62 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 43 percent
Nevada:
58.7 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 47 percent
Trump: 44 percent
Ohio:
59.8 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 45 percent
Pennsylvania
45.9 percent of expected total voters
Hillary: 48 percent
Trump: 44 percent
https://news.vice.com/story/live-election-day-turnout-results-with-votecastry?cl=fp
For past elections, media organizations agreed to hold back any Election Day voting data because they thought the information trickling in throughout the day would unduly affect voters.
Through a partnership with the data firm VoteCastr and Slate, VICE News breaks that rule and for the first time will bring you voting turnout data from the battleground states in real time. VoteCastrs models and methods are based on the same techniques that presidential campaigns use. Its founders were part of previous presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and George W. Bush. What we see is likely what the war rooms inside the presidential campaigns are seeing.
Florida
83.9 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 45 percent
Colorado:
80.3 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 43 percent
Iowa:
66.5 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 45 percent
Trump: 46 percent
Wisconsin:
62 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 43 percent
Nevada:
58.7 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 47 percent
Trump: 44 percent
Ohio:
59.8 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 45 percent
Pennsylvania
45.9 percent of expected total voters
Hillary: 48 percent
Trump: 44 percent
https://news.vice.com/story/live-election-day-turnout-results-with-votecastry?cl=fp
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The latest VoteCastr data from 8 swing states Updated: 3:48 p.m. E.T. (Original Post)
DonViejo
Nov 2016
OP
TheLibIn615
(61 posts)3. JUST HANG ON, FLORIDA
Obviously I want a blowout but at this point I'm just wanting this feeling in my stomach to go the fuck away.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)4. Just a note; THIS IS NOT EXIT POLLING
This is microtargeting where they use data base to match actual votes with known preferences for each specific voter.
If you subscribe to a Yoga magazine (to boil it down to a single issue out of hundreds) they are going to consider you a likely Clinton supporter and if you are a lifelong member of the NRA then they are going to consider you as a likely Trump supporter (although they use a larger data base that includes party affiliation).
grantcart
(53,061 posts)6. Projected Vote Totals from Castr (same site)
These are projected votes based on Microtargeted data for each actual voter:
FL
Clinton 4.2 million
Trump 3.9 million
Iowa
Clinton 524K
Trump 505K
Nevada
Clinton 408K
Trump 401K
New Hampshire
Clinton 204K
Trump 188K
Ohio
Clinton 1.97
Trump 1.94
PA
Clinton 1.78
Trump 1.68
Wis
Clinton 995K
Trump 856K
All pretty close and nothing way out of left field here. The most promising number is + 300K in FLorida. That is exactly the number of first time Hispanic voters. What the numbers seem to indicate is that a microtargeting of voters by the Clinton campaign is going to pay off.