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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 04:55 PM Nov 2016

The latest VoteCastr data from 8 swing states Updated: 3:48 p.m. E.T.

Background on this data

For past elections, media organizations agreed to hold back any Election Day voting data because they thought the information trickling in throughout the day would unduly affect voters.

Through a partnership with the data firm VoteCastr and Slate, VICE News breaks that rule and for the first time will bring you voting turnout data from the battleground states in real time. VoteCastr’s models and methods are based on the same techniques that presidential campaigns use. Its founders were part of previous presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and George W. Bush. What we see is likely what the war rooms inside the presidential campaigns are seeing.

Florida

83.9 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 45 percent

Colorado:

80.3 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 43 percent

Iowa:

66.5 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 45 percent
Trump: 46 percent

Wisconsin:

62 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 48 percent
Trump: 43 percent

Nevada:

58.7 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 47 percent
Trump: 44 percent

Ohio:

59.8 percent of expected total voters
Clinton: 46 percent
Trump: 45 percent

Pennsylvania

45.9 percent of expected total voters
Hillary: 48 percent
Trump: 44 percent

https://news.vice.com/story/live-election-day-turnout-results-with-votecastry?cl=fp
8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The latest VoteCastr data from 8 swing states Updated: 3:48 p.m. E.T. (Original Post) DonViejo Nov 2016 OP
JUST HANG ON, FLORIDA TheLibIn615 Nov 2016 #3
Just a note; THIS IS NOT EXIT POLLING grantcart Nov 2016 #4
Projected Vote Totals from Castr (same site) grantcart Nov 2016 #6
Dec 1969 #

TheLibIn615

(61 posts)
3. JUST HANG ON, FLORIDA
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 05:03 PM
Nov 2016

Obviously I want a blowout but at this point I'm just wanting this feeling in my stomach to go the fuck away.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
4. Just a note; THIS IS NOT EXIT POLLING
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 05:03 PM
Nov 2016

This is microtargeting where they use data base to match actual votes with known preferences for each specific voter.

If you subscribe to a Yoga magazine (to boil it down to a single issue out of hundreds) they are going to consider you a likely Clinton supporter and if you are a lifelong member of the NRA then they are going to consider you as a likely Trump supporter (although they use a larger data base that includes party affiliation).

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
6. Projected Vote Totals from Castr (same site)
Tue Nov 8, 2016, 05:12 PM
Nov 2016

These are projected votes based on Microtargeted data for each actual voter:

FL

Clinton 4.2 million
Trump 3.9 million

Iowa
Clinton 524K
Trump 505K

Nevada
Clinton 408K
Trump 401K

New Hampshire
Clinton 204K
Trump 188K

Ohio
Clinton 1.97
Trump 1.94

PA
Clinton 1.78
Trump 1.68

Wis
Clinton 995K
Trump 856K

All pretty close and nothing way out of left field here. The most promising number is + 300K in FLorida. That is exactly the number of first time Hispanic voters. What the numbers seem to indicate is that a microtargeting of voters by the Clinton campaign is going to pay off.

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