2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts) Wed Nov 16, 2016, 05:07 PM Nov 2016

Lesson from upstate New York.

New York state didn't get a lot of attention because the outcome was never in doubt. However, there's something to be learned in the difference between Clinton's numbers vs Chuck Schumer's. Keep in mind, Clinton back in 2006 won the entire state and was very popular in upstate New York.

In 2016, Clinton's entire margin of victory statewide came from 4 NYC boroughs: Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan. Across the rest of the state it was pretty much a dead heat.

Clinton won a total of 16 counties. Trump won 46.

In 2016, Chuck Schumer won 55 counties. His Republican opponent won 7.

Schumer's margin of victory statewide was over twice as big as Clinton's.

Look at the two maps:

Clinton-Trump:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york

Schumer-Long:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-senate-schumer-long

There are a number of significant differences, but the big one is pretty inescapable--Schumer has maintained a connection to the voters in upstate New York that Clinton lost on her way to being a national politician.

If you want another comparison, look at how Barack Obama did in NY State in 2012:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/states/new-york

Obama won 37 counties to 25 for Mitt Romney.

21 counties flipped from Obama to Trump.

In a state Hillary won with 67% of the vote in 2006.

8 replies

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Lesson from upstate New York. (Original Post) geek tragedy Nov 2016 OP

Thanks for putting work into crunching these numbers Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #1

I think some people here just don't want to hear it. Warren DeMontague Nov 2016 #2

Remember the days when the Blue Dogs were considered one of our geek tragedy Nov 2016 #3

Iowa experienced the very same thing, looking at 2012 vs. 2016 numbers. bullwinkle428 Nov 2016 #4

Also worth noting NY State had Senate elections in 2012 and 2016. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #5

People liked Obama SoCalDem Nov 2016 #6

I'm surrounded by ny and ct frump voters lindysalsagal Nov 2016 #7

In the meantime, Hillary turned Orange County, CA blue for the first time R B Garr Nov 2016 #8

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)

1. Thanks for putting work into crunching these numbers

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2016, 09:48 PM

Nov 2016

I think they are meaningful.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)

2. I think some people here just don't want to hear it.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 05:44 AM

Nov 2016

Any suggestion that there might have been any actual on-the-ground problem whatsoever akin to what you've outlined, here, is apparently "bashing".

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

3. Remember the days when the Blue Dogs were considered one of our

Reply to Warren DeMontague (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 08:51 AM

Nov 2016

biggest problems?

Such concerns seem quaint now.

bullwinkle428

(20,629 posts)

4. Iowa experienced the very same thing, looking at 2012 vs. 2016 numbers.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 09:48 AM

Nov 2016

2016 :

2012:

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

5. Also worth noting NY State had Senate elections in 2012 and 2016.

Reply to bullwinkle428 (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 03:55 PM

Nov 2016

Democrats won both by almost identical margins, with very similar looking maps.

The difference wasn't turnout, it was how people viewed the national party and the top of the ticket.

SoCalDem

(103,856 posts)

6. People liked Obama

Reply to bullwinkle428 (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 04:36 PM

Nov 2016

Hillary? not so much.

picking the candidate is all-important..

lindysalsagal

(20,718 posts)

7. I'm surrounded by ny and ct frump voters

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 06:57 PM

Nov 2016

I think he really did win. Dumbasses.

R B Garr

(16,966 posts)

8. In the meantime, Hillary turned Orange County, CA blue for the first time

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 17, 2016, 07:03 PM

Nov 2016

since the Depression. That is such a huge development. Since way before my lifetime, Orange County has been called the Orange Curtain -- a Republican stronghold for literally decades. This is a very big topic here in this area.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-734831-orange-blue.html

"Hillary Clinton has beaten Donald Trump in Orange County, the first time since the Great Depression the county has gone blue in a presidential election.

Clinton, the Democratic nominee who lost the presidential race to Republican Donald Trump Tuesday, has received nearly 50 percent of the Orange County vote with all precincts reporting and 795,000 votes counted as of Wednesday morning, according to the Orange County registrar of voters. Trump had 44.9 percent of the vote.

The last time Orange County went blue was in 1936 – at the height of the Depression and five years before the United States entered World War II – when voters backed incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt over Kansas Gov. Alf Landon......."

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