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marylandblue

(12,344 posts)
Thu Nov 17, 2016, 10:40 PM Nov 2016

Matt Bai's postmortem

[snip]
Basically, the party’s leading funders and operatives decided that they didn’t have to pander to white people living outside of cities anymore, because with each passing year their voters were cementing a new majority and redrawing the electoral map. Every election now was going to be a turnout election; get the people who already agree with you to the polls, and you don’t have to worry very much about persuading anyone else...


...And so this was Hillary’s driving theory of the race. Her campaign was effectively nothing but a giant turnout operation, crunching data on reliable Democratic voters while simultaneously keeping the candidate herself from saying anything remotely interesting. She ran on a database, rather than on an argument; the more Trump alienated and motivated her base, the less she felt the need to make any discernible case...

...But the Cult of Demography was built on some very flawed assumptions...


... even if you buy that a Democrat can maximize turnout among minorities and the already converted, it doesn’t mean you can simply forget about everyone else. In politics, how well you do among your own constituencies isn’t all that matters; there’s also the question of just how poorly you do among the groups you can’t win.

An analysis by The Hill newspaper found that while Clinton actually performed better than Obama in the most densely populated counties of states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, she trailed him by much larger margins in the all-white rural areas, which sealed her defeat.

Why? Because she never so much as looked in their direction...

snip

https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-democrats-2016-mistake-100053074.html



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Matt Bai's postmortem (Original Post) marylandblue Nov 2016 OP
When I was watching the returns, I got the impression that she didn't perform as well as Obama LeftInTX Nov 2016 #1

LeftInTX

(25,504 posts)
1. When I was watching the returns, I got the impression that she didn't perform as well as Obama
Thu Nov 17, 2016, 11:45 PM
Nov 2016

in some of those urban areas.

The irony: She performed much better in Travis, Dallas, Bexar and Dallas Counties than Obama did. In Bexar County, Obama beat Romney by 4.5 pts, Hillary beat Trump 54-40 (Johnson got 3.5% Jill Stein got like 1%)

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