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BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 02:31 AM Nov 2016

Why I think the vote count is more or less accurate

Minnesota. Trump came within 1.5 points of winning Minnesota. Minnesota hasn't gone Republican since Nixon was reelected, but it came close this time. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/minnesota/

Our Governor and Secretary of State are Democrats. We had no voter repression. In fact, the state made it easier to vote by opening up early voting locations and no-excuse absentee voting. We also have same-day voter registration. I trust the count in my state. For Minnesota to come so close to going for Trump, there had to be a pro-Trump effect across the country.

I don't think the recount will alter the outcome. Remember, Clinton has to win all three states (WI, MI, and PA) to overturn Trump. I think the Dems aren't asking for recounts because they don't think it will alter the outcome.

I would like nothing more than to be wrong, but I have to think logically about this so as not to get my hopes up.
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Why I think the vote count is more or less accurate (Original Post) BainsBane Nov 2016 OP
Well, he didn't win across the whole country. LisaL Nov 2016 #1
He did better than anticipated BainsBane Nov 2016 #2
Minnesota Lotusflower70 Nov 2016 #3
Yes BainsBane Nov 2016 #4
How the hell do you ever convince people who think Trump is more honest? LisaL Nov 2016 #5
They took his crudeness for honesty BainsBane Nov 2016 #8
MPR Lotusflower70 Nov 2016 #7
likely voter suppression was way more effective than any actual cheating issues. nt msongs Nov 2016 #6
I agree. nt BainsBane Nov 2016 #13
Here's why I disagree: ucrdem Nov 2016 #9
Well, I hope you're right BainsBane Nov 2016 #10
PA won't be easy but if the other two are reversed ucrdem Nov 2016 #11
Why would they do a revote? BainsBane Nov 2016 #12
No paper trails. ucrdem Nov 2016 #14
the recounts/audits have zero investigative aspects concerning possible Russian hacking of real vote Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #17
I completely agree. ucrdem Nov 2016 #18
I dont think those announcements said Russia actuality hacked real votes. Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #19
"A conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect" ucrdem Nov 2016 #21
yes. very flexible statement, as you said Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #22
It is SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #31
The fact that you trust the process in your state doesn't mean milestogo Nov 2016 #15
also the problem is more likely in people who may not have been able to vote JI7 Nov 2016 #16
Exactly n/t SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #34
I think you're right. DemocraticWing Nov 2016 #20
as accurate as HACKED software rendered it robbedvoter Nov 2016 #23
They compare the count to the paper ballots BainsBane Nov 2016 #24
What paper ballots? Amishman Nov 2016 #30
WI and MI have paper ballots BainsBane Nov 2016 #37
Interesting article but not applicable for PA since our machines have no external connection Amishman Nov 2016 #43
Election Systems & Software (ES&S) is based in Dallas and does much of the JimBeard Nov 2016 #25
Regardless of the outcome, verification is prudent liberal N proud Nov 2016 #26
There isn't a problem with calling it on election night... Blanks Nov 2016 #28
By the time the election is called 10's of thousands of votes have yet to be counted liberal N proud Nov 2016 #29
Of course those votes are counted SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #32
I don't have a problem with waiting a day or two... Blanks Nov 2016 #49
My hopes are not up, but anomalies have been found. I'd like to know what they mean. If Squinch Nov 2016 #27
Highly doubtful there will be audits SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #33
Oh, for fuck's sakes. You again. Audits are part of recounts. And you are really making yourself Squinch Nov 2016 #38
I guess I missed it SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #39
Waaaaay too obvious. Way too invested in keeping people from even discussing looking at Squinch Nov 2016 #40
Hmmm SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #41
It doesn't hurt you and yet you are very, very concerned every time someone brings it up, and Squinch Nov 2016 #42
Again SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #44
Again, I know why you are here, so no I'm not going to spend my time finding you links. Again Squinch Nov 2016 #45
LOL SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #46
Way. Too. Obvious. Squinch Nov 2016 #47
Then you shouldn't have a hard time SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2016 #48
When they made that last minute dash through the upper Midwest it raised questions in my mind. Dream Girl Nov 2016 #35
The vote count is accurate nationally, but were 50,000 votes flipped in key locations? Coyotl Nov 2016 #36
FL and PA would be easy targets BainsBane Nov 2016 #50
And a mere 50,000 FL & PA voters would alter the outcome of the electoral college. Coyotl Nov 2016 #51

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
1. Well, he didn't win across the whole country.
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 02:35 AM
Nov 2016

He did lose the popular vote. Bigly. Unfortunately most democrats live in NY and CA. But some states (the ones that mattered due to electoral college) apparently, did shift to him.
So I don't hold my breath waiting for recounts to show something else.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
2. He did better than anticipated
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 02:36 AM
Nov 2016

and well enough to win the electoral college. That's what I meant.

Lotusflower70

(3,077 posts)
3. Minnesota
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 02:41 AM
Nov 2016

I was wondering about why he came to Minnesota just before the election and had that rally at the airport hanger. As a resident of Minnesota, the closeness of the vote tally was quite scary but the farm communities and the Iron Range might have influenced that.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
4. Yes
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:00 AM
Nov 2016

MPR did a story on Trump voters on the Iron Range. Some talked about environmental regulations taking jobs away. Other said they believed him more honest, or that they liked the fact he was rich.

I know at least one US Steel taconite plant is currently in a 2 year and counting lay off. That's tough. Somehow Clinton didn't manage to convince them that Trump would be bad for their jobs, not good. I don't know why his own use of Chinese steel and foreign labor didn't make an impression with them.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
8. They took his crudeness for honesty
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:10 AM
Nov 2016

Because he was vulgar and disgusting, they believed he "told it like it is." No he didn't. This is a failing of our educational system and media. Note, I encountered one of those "progressives" in another thread who insisted that fact checkers had conspired with the Clinton campaign to fix her ratings. So that sort of idiocy is sadly across the board. It is that more than anything else that will be the undoing of our country.

Lotusflower70

(3,077 posts)
7. MPR
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:09 AM
Nov 2016

I listened to that story. I think with the Trump humpers, it's all about selective hearing. Plus Hillary's approach to the mining industry and the workers was not helpful so he easily pitted the workers against her. The myth of him as the outsider and an eff you to the establishment helped as well. The fantasy of more factory jobs is ridiculous. The reality is automated jobs. But you can't convince them of that. Also, they don't care about the environment. It's a non-issue in their eyes.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
9. Here's why I disagree:
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:21 AM
Nov 2016

Michigan - More African-American voters than MN, and many thousands of ballots reported with no presidential vote from Detroit;
Wisconsin - 85% voter turnout and other anomalies in the county reports;
Pennsylvania - Anomalous R wins in Luzerne and similar counties.

So if the recounts go forward I'm prepared to be disappointed but I'd say the odds of waking up and finding out that Hillary is going be inaugurated are about 50-50.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
10. Well, I hope you're right
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:24 AM
Nov 2016

In the case of MI, the margin is so narrow that result could be changed. WI is also pretty close, PA less so. She must win all three.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
11. PA won't be easy but if the other two are reversed
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:29 AM
Nov 2016

all bets are off and I would not rule out a revote. Don't forget that the designated perp is Russia which will make extraordinary measures acceptable, also that the Supreme Court is likely to be invoked at some point and if Kennedy sides with the recount she wins.

BainsBane

(53,032 posts)
12. Why would they do a revote?
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:30 AM
Nov 2016

That's never been done in US history. I'm sorry, but this sounds like denial.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
14. No paper trails.
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 03:46 AM
Nov 2016

I don't know yet what they're planning for PA but if the Russians are declared to have caused the misreporting of three states' electoral votes we're in brand new territory. So stay tuned...

 

Grey Lemercier

(1,429 posts)
17. the recounts/audits have zero investigative aspects concerning possible Russian hacking of real vote
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 04:34 AM
Nov 2016

IF the actual machines were tampered with I almost almost positive it is an American internal actor, such as rogue CIA or NSA elements and or a group of RW multi billionaires.

The Russian hackers and trolls were more indirect, employing armies of social media sock puppets, fake news story plants, and also hacking email accounts.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
18. I completely agree.
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 04:40 AM
Nov 2016

Nevertheless if cheating is found the designated perp will be Russia. There have already been several announcements making that clear.

 

Grey Lemercier

(1,429 posts)
19. I dont think those announcements said Russia actuality hacked real votes.
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 04:48 AM
Nov 2016

If I am incorrect I apologise.

I think they meant Russia inflenced them via the actions I listed above. Murky waters we navigate. Horrific for the country on every conceivable level.

milestogo

(16,829 posts)
15. The fact that you trust the process in your state doesn't mean
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 04:04 AM
Nov 2016

that it wasn't hacked somewhere else. Hackers are not going to target every single state. Its going to depend on their people and equipment access in each different situation. And its going to depend on their strategy, which is going to entail not being too obvious.

In your neighboring state of Wisconsin, everything is run by republicans, but it always goes blue in the presidential. Except this time. I don't believe the votes reported in Wisconsin are accurate. We'll see.

JI7

(89,250 posts)
16. also the problem is more likely in people who may not have been able to vote
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 04:06 AM
Nov 2016

because of things done after the end of voting rights .

and recounts or even audits of the votes cast wont do anything to change that.

robbedvoter

(28,290 posts)
23. as accurate as HACKED software rendered it
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 07:20 AM
Nov 2016

the misdeed happened BEFORE the count. A recount will legitimize the hack

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
30. What paper ballots?
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 10:06 AM
Nov 2016

Many areas do not use paper ballots. I know this is true in almost all of PA.

And I'm not sure how people think these machines were hacked in PA. These are dinosaur systems with no internet capability or any sort of remote connection. There would literally had to have been a large team travelling the state prior to the election and systematically modifying thousands of individual machines... And doing it all over again afterwards to remove the evidence of their tampering after the vote. Just not remotely plausible.

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
43. Interesting article but not applicable for PA since our machines have no external connection
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:51 PM
Nov 2016

If we are going to use voting machines, they should not be capable of an internet connection. I do wish the PA machines had a paper print out / reporting capability though.

 

JimBeard

(293 posts)
25. Election Systems & Software (ES&S) is based in Dallas and does much of the
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 08:12 AM
Nov 2016

programming of voting machines at least of the scanner type with the paper back up. There is no count of the paper backup unless of challenged, of course there is hesitation because Trump was the one talking about rigged elections. I really want to see a recount. I have been a county chair where I review the printed tape, like a grocery store receipt of the paper ballots scanned. It would be very easy for a Snowden to manipulate the machines.

All the County clerks do who over see the election is install the programming from ES&S.

liberal N proud

(60,334 posts)
26. Regardless of the outcome, verification is prudent
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 08:31 AM
Nov 2016

It should be standard operating procedure for each and every election. These events are too important to have them called on election night the way they are.

The country deserves fair and accountable elections.

Blanks

(4,835 posts)
28. There isn't a problem with calling it on election night...
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 08:53 AM
Nov 2016

If most of the voting is early voting. Really, Election Day should be your last chance to vote and not your ONLY chance to vote.

Hopefully we will see more early voting in the future.

liberal N proud

(60,334 posts)
29. By the time the election is called 10's of thousands of votes have yet to be counted
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 09:30 AM
Nov 2016

Those votes don't count when the election is called before counting is complete.

We can wait a day or even two if necessary so results can be compiled and verified.

SickOfTheOnePct

(7,290 posts)
32. Of course those votes are counted
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 10:12 AM
Nov 2016

after the election is called. They don't just stop counting votes when networks make a call.

Blanks

(4,835 posts)
49. I don't have a problem with waiting a day or two...
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 01:38 PM
Nov 2016

But the concept of Election Day seems unnecessary in this day and age.

I voted several days early. There was no line, I even had to update my information, and I was still done in half an hour. My votes printed out on a piece of paper (like a cash register receipt) where I could see it, but not touch it.

I think we need to get away from waiting for Election Day to vote, that should be the deadline so maybe 10% of voters vote on that day. It makes sense to use that day to declare the winner, but not if everyone should wait until then.

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
27. My hopes are not up, but anomalies have been found. I'd like to know what they mean. If
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 08:37 AM
Nov 2016

an audit finds anything more, all the better.

SickOfTheOnePct

(7,290 posts)
33. Highly doubtful there will be audits
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 10:13 AM
Nov 2016

just recounts. And not necessarily hand recounts, which in PA would be impossible anyway.

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
38. Oh, for fuck's sakes. You again. Audits are part of recounts. And you are really making yourself
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:18 PM
Nov 2016

way too obvious.

SickOfTheOnePct

(7,290 posts)
39. I guess I missed it
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:22 PM
Nov 2016

No one is permitted to question the ridiculous "We can overturn the vote!!!" campaign.

And no, audits are not necessarily part of recounts.

Yes, I'm obvious about the fact that I think it's laughable that this election can be overturned.

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
40. Waaaaay too obvious. Way too invested in keeping people from even discussing looking at
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:25 PM
Nov 2016

the anomalies that have been found.

Once again, I'll ask you, though it won't serve your purposes to answer I'm sure: what does it hurt you if the anomalies are investigated and the vote is audited?

And yes, audits are part of recounts.

Waaaaay too obvious.

SickOfTheOnePct

(7,290 posts)
41. Hmmm
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:35 PM
Nov 2016

Could you please link to any post where I've tried to keep people from discussing it?

I'm happy to answer, although I've done so previously (repeatedly) - it doesn't hurt me at all for the anomalies to be investigated; I believe it to be a waste of time and money, but as it's neither my time nor my money, have at it. But claiming that the election was stolen does provide an excuse for not looking at the real reasons we lost.

Since you've claimed it a couple of times now, I'm assuming you have a link that showing that recounts include audits? Thanks in advance.

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
42. It doesn't hurt you and yet you are very, very concerned every time someone brings it up, and
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:42 PM
Nov 2016

seem to feel the need to argue against their discussing it. Over and over and over and over and over.

If you actually were not concerned and thought, as you say, "have at it," your behavior would be very different.

If you would like to have sources that show that recounts include audits, I suggest you look for them. They are not that hard to find. I'm not here to help you with your education.

SickOfTheOnePct

(7,290 posts)
44. Again
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 12:59 PM
Nov 2016

where have I ever argued against anyone discussing it?

Nope, I'm not going to look for sources that back up something you're claiming. If you're going to make the claim, you should be able to back it up.

Squinch

(50,949 posts)
45. Again, I know why you are here, so no I'm not going to spend my time finding you links. Again
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 01:05 PM
Nov 2016

do whatever you like with that.

Again, when I see you in the next thread telling someone how stupid they are for wanting the anomalies in the election looked into, I will again point out that you are being way too obvious.



 

Dream Girl

(5,111 posts)
35. When they made that last minute dash through the upper Midwest it raised questions in my mind.
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 10:26 AM
Nov 2016

Did they have some indication that the fix was in? Maybe there was some plausible deniability e.g. Manafort (remember him?) meets with Bannon and says I can't tell you why but you need to focus on these states stat because it's "looking rallygood for you" there

 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
36. The vote count is accurate nationally, but were 50,000 votes flipped in key locations?
Fri Nov 25, 2016, 10:31 AM
Nov 2016

The way you steal elections is by altering the outcome in a close race just enough to swing the victory to your candidate. That very slight nudge does not show up anywhere you would notice. In fact, done right there would be no evidence to find and no chance of detection.

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