2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary is now more than 2,129,000 votes ahead of Trump. But white votes count more
than minority votes in the Electoral College, in the Senate, and in gerrymandered districts in the House.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10174
http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/11/22/13713148/electoral-college-democracy-race-white-voters
Before the election, we computed the probability that a single vote would be decisive in the presidential election, in any state. In addition to answering the perennial question, does my vote matter? our goal was to explore the degree to which the Electoral College gives voters in some states disproportionate power.
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The probability of one persons vote being decisive, we found, ranged from roughly one in a million for a resident of New Hampshire a swing state with a relatively small population to less than one in one billion in states that are reliably red or blue, such as New York, California, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
We can use a similar approach to show how the Electoral College increases not just the weight of voters in swing states but the weight of voters of certain ethnicities based on their distribution across the states. We find that, based on the current distribution of voters of different ethnicities across states, and particularly within swing states, the Electoral College amplifies the power of white voters by a substantial amount.
Our first calculation the probability of a single residents vote making the difference nationally, regardless of ethnicity is straightforward. You multiply together two factors: 1) the probability that your state is needed for an electoral college win and 2) the probability that the vote in your state is tied, given that its electoral votes are necessary. Take California, for example. There we estimated a probability of over 50 percent that the state's 55 electoral votes would be required for a win. But there was a probability of less than 1 in 10 billion that the vote in the state would be tied, under this scenario.
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oberliner
(58,724 posts)If he won the popular vote by over 2 million but lost in the EC.
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)Trying to figure out our reward for being so well-behaved.
JI7
(89,250 posts)LisaL
(44,973 posts)He campaigned in the Rust Belt. He knew what he was doing.
JI7
(89,250 posts)pnwmom
(108,978 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)No point in bemoaning what is passed. Dems and Hillary FAILED to connect with the voters they needed in MI, PA, and WI. And in all three, many Dems failed to vote or they voted third party. This was a self-inflicted wound. Enough of the whining and blame game. It is as times like these bemoaning and whining will not do. Look honestly at mistakes made by ONESELF and FIX IT! FAIL to do that, and one DESERVES to LOSE!
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)tossed a couple letter bombs into the election. That's why Hillary didn't win the electoral college in addition to the large popular vote win.
She didn't FAIL. She was cheated by an unethical FBI director who ignored official Justice Department policy and precedent.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)When they wrote the constitution, white men were the only people voting. So there was no need to conspire and design the system the way they did to go against minorities. Women and minorities didn't vote. They didn't even have political parties at that time. The reason we have the electoral college has nothing to do with racism.
Today, we've got two major political parties and a rural-urban divide. The Democrats have consolidated themselves in the urban centers. Democrats win 70% of the vote in the major cities. The Republicans are spread out and have a more stable structural array in rural areas. It's also a republic form of government. It's not supposed to be a straight democracy. So even if the highly populated regions go for one candidate, the rural areas are guaranteed to have a say in the government. This is all actually shielding the Republicans against unfavorable demographical changes since they and white people are maintaining majorities in the rural regions.
The Republicans may never win the popular vote again. But regardless they have a level of historic power right now.
The simple reality is that the Republicans know how to play the electoral systems to their advantage better than Democrats. It is what it is.
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)So it's not a coincidence that it favors white people now.
http://time.com/4558510/electoral-college-history-slavery/
At the Philadelphia convention, the visionary Pennsylvanian James Wilson proposed direct national election of the president. But the savvy Virginian James Madison responded that such a system would prove unacceptable to the South: The right of suffrage was much more diffusive [i.e., extensive] in the Northern than the Southern States; and the latter could have no influence in the election on the score of Negroes. In other words, in a direct election system, the North would outnumber the South, whose many slaves (more than half a million in all) of course could not vote. But the Electoral Collegea prototype of which Madison proposed in this same speechinstead let each southern state count its slaves, albeit with a two-fifths discount, in computing its share of the overall count.
Virginia emerged as the big winnerthe California of the Founding erawith 12 out of a total of 91 electoral votes allocated by the Philadelphia Constitution, more than a quarter of the 46 needed to win an election in the first round. After the 1800 census, Wilsons free state of Pennsylvania had 10% more free persons than Virginia, but got 20% fewer electoral votes. Perversely, the more slaves Virginia (or any other slave state) bought or bred, the more electoral votes it would receive. Were a slave state to free any blacks who then moved North, the state could actually lose electoral votes.
If the systems pro-slavery tilt was not overwhelmingly obvious when the Constitution was ratified, it quickly became so. For 32 of the Constitutions first 36 years, a white slaveholding Virginian occupied the presidency.
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